Brian Stewart

You had also asked about tariffs, and I think that's something that's making it much murkier when you look into sort of the crystal ball of inflation. You have sort of the normal pressures that the Fed is dealing with in terms of the economic pressure. causes of inflation.

And then you have this sort of political possibility out there, the extent to which tariffs are going to push prices higher for consumers. And obviously, that's out of the Fed's hands. There's nothing they can't raise interest rates to a point where tariffs go away.

And then you have this sort of political possibility out there, the extent to which tariffs are going to push prices higher for consumers. And obviously, that's out of the Fed's hands. There's nothing they can't raise interest rates to a point where tariffs go away.

And then you have this sort of political possibility out there, the extent to which tariffs are going to push prices higher for consumers. And obviously, that's out of the Fed's hands. There's nothing they can't raise interest rates to a point where tariffs go away.

It's going to be interesting how those play into the Fed's decision making, whether or not they'll kind of ignore it and try and just kind of look at the underlying inflationary pressures, or if, as the White House would like them to do, kind of counteract tariffs by keeping inflation under control. Gold has been rallying to new highs. recently driven by fear of inflation.

It's going to be interesting how those play into the Fed's decision making, whether or not they'll kind of ignore it and try and just kind of look at the underlying inflationary pressures, or if, as the White House would like them to do, kind of counteract tariffs by keeping inflation under control. Gold has been rallying to new highs. recently driven by fear of inflation.

It's going to be interesting how those play into the Fed's decision making, whether or not they'll kind of ignore it and try and just kind of look at the underlying inflationary pressures, or if, as the White House would like them to do, kind of counteract tariffs by keeping inflation under control. Gold has been rallying to new highs. recently driven by fear of inflation.

It's generally seen as an inflation hedge. So I think the more that worry pops up, the more you can see people taking positions in gold as kind of a hedge for that. Looking at the bond market, looking at the gold market, I think those will give you indications about where inflation, where the impression is that inflation will be headed.

It's generally seen as an inflation hedge. So I think the more that worry pops up, the more you can see people taking positions in gold as kind of a hedge for that. Looking at the bond market, looking at the gold market, I think those will give you indications about where inflation, where the impression is that inflation will be headed.

It's generally seen as an inflation hedge. So I think the more that worry pops up, the more you can see people taking positions in gold as kind of a hedge for that. Looking at the bond market, looking at the gold market, I think those will give you indications about where inflation, where the impression is that inflation will be headed.

Yeah, we're through the jobs data and this was the most recent inflation data. So we're in a bit of a quiet period in terms of actual information. So it won't be into March that we're going to get the big data points that can kind of move expectations. So I think that people should keep an eye on Fed commentary as it bubbles up in various Fed commentators speaking over the next week or so.

Yeah, we're through the jobs data and this was the most recent inflation data. So we're in a bit of a quiet period in terms of actual information. So it won't be into March that we're going to get the big data points that can kind of move expectations. So I think that people should keep an eye on Fed commentary as it bubbles up in various Fed commentators speaking over the next week or so.

Yeah, we're through the jobs data and this was the most recent inflation data. So we're in a bit of a quiet period in terms of actual information. So it won't be into March that we're going to get the big data points that can kind of move expectations. So I think that people should keep an eye on Fed commentary as it bubbles up in various Fed commentators speaking over the next week or so.

They'll give you an idea of how aggressively hawkish the Fed wants to become. Like I said, right now we're kind of pricing in a rate cut sometime in the summer. So that would be the target. If you're wondering if the Fed is starting to turn extremely concerned about inflation, look for commentary that would push rate cuts past that period into later in the year.

They'll give you an idea of how aggressively hawkish the Fed wants to become. Like I said, right now we're kind of pricing in a rate cut sometime in the summer. So that would be the target. If you're wondering if the Fed is starting to turn extremely concerned about inflation, look for commentary that would push rate cuts past that period into later in the year.

They'll give you an idea of how aggressively hawkish the Fed wants to become. Like I said, right now we're kind of pricing in a rate cut sometime in the summer. So that would be the target. If you're wondering if the Fed is starting to turn extremely concerned about inflation, look for commentary that would push rate cuts past that period into later in the year.

And also look for people who might be talking down the possibility of any rate cuts this year. In terms of a turning point, kind of a pivot point for inflation expectations, I would keep an eye on if there's ever any commentary starting to bubble up whether the next move should be a rate hike.

And also look for people who might be talking down the possibility of any rate cuts this year. In terms of a turning point, kind of a pivot point for inflation expectations, I would keep an eye on if there's ever any commentary starting to bubble up whether the next move should be a rate hike.

And also look for people who might be talking down the possibility of any rate cuts this year. In terms of a turning point, kind of a pivot point for inflation expectations, I would keep an eye on if there's ever any commentary starting to bubble up whether the next move should be a rate hike.

Right now, we've kind of talked about things in terms of whether or not there's going to be a cut and when that cut might happen. But at some level of inflationary concern, the tide might turn to worrying about a rate hike as the next move.