Brian Stewart

I think the inflation data, even more than the jobs report or the manufacturing report, I feel that given the situation with tariffs and the possible economic implications of those, that that data is going to be seen as backward looking. It just does not describe the reality that we're living in sort of post tariffs.

I think the inflation data, even more than the jobs report or the manufacturing report, I feel that given the situation with tariffs and the possible economic implications of those, that that data is going to be seen as backward looking. It just does not describe the reality that we're living in sort of post tariffs.

I think the inflation data, even more than the jobs report or the manufacturing report, I feel that given the situation with tariffs and the possible economic implications of those, that that data is going to be seen as backward looking. It just does not describe the reality that we're living in sort of post tariffs.

So I don't know that that's going to have a huge impact on the thought process, but the CPI report might because it will kind of define the baseline as we look to whether or not tariffs are going to cause higher prices. I mean, the worst case scenario still remains that we end up in some sort of stagflationary situation. environment demand craters because everything gets too expensive.

So I don't know that that's going to have a huge impact on the thought process, but the CPI report might because it will kind of define the baseline as we look to whether or not tariffs are going to cause higher prices. I mean, the worst case scenario still remains that we end up in some sort of stagflationary situation. environment demand craters because everything gets too expensive.

So I don't know that that's going to have a huge impact on the thought process, but the CPI report might because it will kind of define the baseline as we look to whether or not tariffs are going to cause higher prices. I mean, the worst case scenario still remains that we end up in some sort of stagflationary situation. environment demand craters because everything gets too expensive.

And so we have a recession, but prices remain sticky because tariffs are adding to already existing inflationary pressures. And so prices remain high and jobs start to bottom out. So we could see a worst case scenario brewing. So I think that the inflation report that comes out next week will be very important into sort of setting those expectations.

And so we have a recession, but prices remain sticky because tariffs are adding to already existing inflationary pressures. And so prices remain high and jobs start to bottom out. So we could see a worst case scenario brewing. So I think that the inflation report that comes out next week will be very important into sort of setting those expectations.

And so we have a recession, but prices remain sticky because tariffs are adding to already existing inflationary pressures. And so prices remain high and jobs start to bottom out. So we could see a worst case scenario brewing. So I think that the inflation report that comes out next week will be very important into sort of setting those expectations.

Yeah, I just don't think that this month's data means much because so much has happened on a macro level.

Yeah, I just don't think that this month's data means much because so much has happened on a macro level.

Yeah, I just don't think that this month's data means much because so much has happened on a macro level.

There's been such a seismic shift in the possibilities, but I think if we look ahead, if we go to sort of beginning of May, when we're going to get the April report, businesses are going to be responding in the next few weeks to the realities of what their supply chain is going to look like, what their cost basis is going to be, and sort of setting their employment levels there.

There's been such a seismic shift in the possibilities, but I think if we look ahead, if we go to sort of beginning of May, when we're going to get the April report, businesses are going to be responding in the next few weeks to the realities of what their supply chain is going to look like, what their cost basis is going to be, and sort of setting their employment levels there.

There's been such a seismic shift in the possibilities, but I think if we look ahead, if we go to sort of beginning of May, when we're going to get the April report, businesses are going to be responding in the next few weeks to the realities of what their supply chain is going to look like, what their cost basis is going to be, and sort of setting their employment levels there.

So that would be the first data point that would involve sort of companies responding to the new reality.

So that would be the first data point that would involve sort of companies responding to the new reality.

So that would be the first data point that would involve sort of companies responding to the new reality.

Another one next week is Delta Airlines, the first airline one. I think it'll be interesting just for the airlines. It's the first marker of demand for travel. Also, CarMax is an interesting one just because we are... getting a 25% tariff on foreign-made auto and auto parts.

Another one next week is Delta Airlines, the first airline one. I think it'll be interesting just for the airlines. It's the first marker of demand for travel. Also, CarMax is an interesting one just because we are... getting a 25% tariff on foreign-made auto and auto parts.