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Bryan Cantrill

πŸ‘€ Speaker
4238 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

Absolutely. And it actually does remind me, you know, we worked at a Samsung bot joint and our VP of marketing at the time really wanted to be a great Samsung patriot. So he threw out his iPhone and he got the latest Samsung phone. And to prove his patriotism, he was going to use Bixby, which it was there. As they say, you haven't heard of for a reason.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

Absolutely. And it actually does remind me, you know, we worked at a Samsung bot joint and our VP of marketing at the time really wanted to be a great Samsung patriot. So he threw out his iPhone and he got the latest Samsung phone. And to prove his patriotism, he was going to use Bixby, which it was there. As they say, you haven't heard of for a reason.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

And Bixby and Steve, I'm like making this up because this sounds so crazy. Bixby would go would start to spout off in Korean. Yeah, it would come alive apropos of nothing and start saying things in Korean during our executive staff meeting. Yeah, it was it was not confidence inspiring.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

And Bixby and Steve, I'm like making this up because this sounds so crazy. Bixby would go would start to spout off in Korean. Yeah, it would come alive apropos of nothing and start saying things in Korean during our executive staff meeting. Yeah, it was it was not confidence inspiring.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

That actually happened, right? Yeah, that's amazing. Actually, along these lines, I actually do have a one-year prediction. So I think that we are seeing a big shift. We are seeing a bunch of these scaling limits on pre-training. And I think this is going to be the year of AI efficiency. And it's funny, because I was actually thinking this...

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

That actually happened, right? Yeah, that's amazing. Actually, along these lines, I actually do have a one-year prediction. So I think that we are seeing a big shift. We are seeing a bunch of these scaling limits on pre-training. And I think this is going to be the year of AI efficiency. And it's funny, because I was actually thinking this...

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

before the DeepSeq result dropped, and the DeepSeq result is astonishing. So if folks have not seen this, this is a Chinese hedge fund that trained a model that, by all accounts, Simon, looks pretty good.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

before the DeepSeq result dropped, and the DeepSeq result is astonishing. So if folks have not seen this, this is a Chinese hedge fund that trained a model that, by all accounts, Simon, looks pretty good.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

And the thing that I found to be so amazing is that they did this with H800s that were, they did this because they did not have H100s or H200s. So they had to do this on basically older hardware And they did it on a shoestring budget because they were forced to because of export regulations. And I think it's got a lot. I mean, Simon, I assume that was as surprising to you.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

And the thing that I found to be so amazing is that they did this with H800s that were, they did this because they did not have H100s or H200s. So they had to do this on basically older hardware And they did it on a shoestring budget because they were forced to because of export regulations. And I think it's got a lot. I mean, Simon, I assume that was as surprising to you.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

That was a very surprising result, I think, to a lot of people.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

That was a very surprising result, I think, to a lot of people.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

So I think this is going to become a trend this year because I think I've been really troubled, for lack of a better word, by the kind of 10x growth in cluster training sizes because it just doesn't make sense. Technological revolutions have an advantage that accrues to the user always.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

So I think this is going to become a trend this year because I think I've been really troubled, for lack of a better word, by the kind of 10x growth in cluster training sizes because it just doesn't make sense. Technological revolutions have an advantage that accrues to the user always.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

The idea that we're going to have to spend 10 times as much money to get something that is only twice as good, that just doesn't make sense. I think that there's going to be a lot of folks who are going to really begin to look at their training build-out. And now I think that that build out could be kind of rephrased as inference time compute, test time compute, or mixture of agents, Mike.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

The idea that we're going to have to spend 10 times as much money to get something that is only twice as good, that just doesn't make sense. I think that there's going to be a lot of folks who are going to really begin to look at their training build-out. And now I think that that build out could be kind of rephrased as inference time compute, test time compute, or mixture of agents, Mike.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

And that's the kind of economic advantage. So this is where it's like a lot easier for me to be like, no, this actually is going to change everything because now that economic advantage is accruing to the user. It's the user that's able to do this really ridiculously powerful thing with not much money in terms of compute, which is really, really interesting.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

And that's the kind of economic advantage. So this is where it's like a lot easier for me to be like, no, this actually is going to change everything because now that economic advantage is accruing to the user. It's the user that's able to do this really ridiculously powerful thing with not much money in terms of compute, which is really, really interesting.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

So on that note, another – okay, just another one year that I've got, and this is not investment advice. I think Blackwell is going to struggle. I think that the – and we'll see. Steve and I are actually just about to head down to CES, and we'll see how prominently Blackwell features down there. And I know that they've sold out their supply for the next year.

Oxide and Friends
Predictions 2025

So on that note, another – okay, just another one year that I've got, and this is not investment advice. I think Blackwell is going to struggle. I think that the – and we'll see. Steve and I are actually just about to head down to CES, and we'll see how prominently Blackwell features down there. And I know that they've sold out their supply for the next year.