Cabot Phillips

Yeah, wild to say the least. After a tough few weeks, markets have now taken a bullish turn. On Friday, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all jumped about a point and a half. The S&P saw its ninth straight day of gains. That's its longest winning streak in 20 years. Overall, the Dow is now within 2% of where it was when Trump kicked off his Liberation Day tariffs.

Yeah, wild to say the least. After a tough few weeks, markets have now taken a bullish turn. On Friday, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all jumped about a point and a half. The S&P saw its ninth straight day of gains. That's its longest winning streak in 20 years. Overall, the Dow is now within 2% of where it was when Trump kicked off his Liberation Day tariffs.

And the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are actually higher than they were before. Now, markets have been fickle. There's always a good chance those gains are erased in a day or two. But there's no doubt this is a remarkable recovery we've seen.

And the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are actually higher than they were before. Now, markets have been fickle. There's always a good chance those gains are erased in a day or two. But there's no doubt this is a remarkable recovery we've seen.

So first, the April jobs report came out Friday and showed a lot more growth than we'd expected. Initially, economists had predicted there'd be 133,000 jobs added in April, but that number came in at 177,000, so 33% higher than expected. Unemployment also held steady and hourly wages saw a 4% increase from the same month last year. So all good news.

So first, the April jobs report came out Friday and showed a lot more growth than we'd expected. Initially, economists had predicted there'd be 133,000 jobs added in April, but that number came in at 177,000, so 33% higher than expected. Unemployment also held steady and hourly wages saw a 4% increase from the same month last year. So all good news.

And zooming out, it's worth noting who exactly those jobs are going to. Remember, under President Biden, foreign-born workers added nearly 4.5 million jobs. But for that same four-year time frame, the number of American-born workers actually fell. So all of the net job growth from 2021 to 2024 in the U.S. was concentrated among folks born outside of the U.S.

And zooming out, it's worth noting who exactly those jobs are going to. Remember, under President Biden, foreign-born workers added nearly 4.5 million jobs. But for that same four-year time frame, the number of American-born workers actually fell. So all of the net job growth from 2021 to 2024 in the U.S. was concentrated among folks born outside of the U.S.

But in April, the number of foreign-born workers decreased, meaning all of the net job growth we saw last month was among American-born workers. Wow. And it was also concentrated in the private sector. As government employment declined for its third straight month, you can see Doge really kicking the gear.

But in April, the number of foreign-born workers decreased, meaning all of the net job growth we saw last month was among American-born workers. Wow. And it was also concentrated in the private sector. As government employment declined for its third straight month, you can see Doge really kicking the gear.

Yeah, at least more than we were expecting.

Yeah, at least more than we were expecting.

Yes, exactly.

Yes, exactly.

So at the start of last week, China was projecting a clear willingness to dig in for a long trade war and weather the economic storm. They were trying to force the U.S. to blink first. The Communist Party said they were prepared to increase payouts for the unemployed, subsidize new housing projects, and incentivize their own people to buy more domestic products.

So at the start of last week, China was projecting a clear willingness to dig in for a long trade war and weather the economic storm. They were trying to force the U.S. to blink first. The Communist Party said they were prepared to increase payouts for the unemployed, subsidize new housing projects, and incentivize their own people to buy more domestic products.

But on Friday, we saw our first real sign that Beijing was open to de-escalation, with the country's commerce ministry saying, quote, if the U.S. wants to talk, our door is wide open. As a sign of that new willingness to strike a deal, the Wall Street Journal reported that Beijing is weighing a potential crackdown on fentanyl production as a show of goodwill to the U.S.

But on Friday, we saw our first real sign that Beijing was open to de-escalation, with the country's commerce ministry saying, quote, if the U.S. wants to talk, our door is wide open. As a sign of that new willingness to strike a deal, the Wall Street Journal reported that Beijing is weighing a potential crackdown on fentanyl production as a show of goodwill to the U.S.

They've also been reaching out for details from the White House on what they're looking for. Remember, China produces the vast majority of the chemicals used in making fentanyl. They then ship it over to Mexico and other countries where it is trafficked in by cartels and others. Investors took that report as evidence that Beijing was looking for an off-ramp and markets responded accordingly.

They've also been reaching out for details from the White House on what they're looking for. Remember, China produces the vast majority of the chemicals used in making fentanyl. They then ship it over to Mexico and other countries where it is trafficked in by cartels and others. Investors took that report as evidence that Beijing was looking for an off-ramp and markets responded accordingly.