Cabot Phillips

He said, you're going to have fighting again within four days.

And at this rate, it looks like we'd be lucky to make it four more hours with this thing holding, given all the latest news coming out in the last hour.

And Michael, I remember the morning that the war first broke out.

You were here on my lovely new set, which still not as good as your set, but a beautiful new set here for Wired In Live.

Everyone go tune in.

And you scoffed a bit.

We had a very nice young lady come on the show.

I'm not going to say her name.

But she was in a big support of this conflict the morning it launched and said, there really are no potential downsides to this war.

Do you remember that?

She said, there are no potential downsides.

And you interjected and said, well,

I think there could be some potential downsides.

I think it's easy to say if things hold, if the ceasefire holds, then yeah.

And if we're able to get anything to the Strait, then yeah, we're in a better place.

The big question though is, can you actually get out right now?

I mean, yeah, Trump can say, well, it's a ceasefire, but if it's a one-sided ceasefire, if all that means is that we're no longer bombing them, if the straight, if you're having to pay $2 million to get a tanker through the straight, if the Iranians are still holding the energy economy globally

Hostage then of course you're not in a better position than you are in the long run and I do think Andrew I agree that the the pundit class has been terrible messaging on this But we can be honest that the White House has been completely all over the place on messaging one day President Trump is saying

Well, we can get out without the Strait of Hormuz.

The rest of the world can figure out oil on their own.