Caitlin Ostroff

Yeah, so this page is the page of someone who bet very, very well on who would be performing at the Super Bowl halftime show.

Yeah, and scroll up because I'm curious at one more thing.

So this shows that the first trades that they made were right before the Super Bowl.

So they had not traded on anything before this.

And if you scroll down, you'll notice that there's no other trades after the Super Bowl ones.

So there's no other types of markets that they've traded on.

So they are either a really, really lucky trader, or they knew something ahead of time.

People have the ability to put money down on things they couldn't historically, and it's way more accessible than it's ever been.

And so you have people who can just take their inside information and make a ton of money off of it in a way that you've never really had before.

Yeah, so polymarket, especially in Kalshi to some degree, you can bet on, like, everything.

And so there's some markets that kind of make no sense and are kind of almost just there as a joke.

Everyone's favorite market is the Jesus market, which you can bet whether Jesus Christ will return by the end of 2027.

If he doesn't come by 2027, they're going to make money on that prediction.

I don't know what the odds are right now, but the last time I looked, it was like a 95% chance that he won't return, which implied like a 5% chance that he will.

So take the election, for example, the 2024 presidential election.

The polls were very close between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, with the slight exception of on Polymarket, where the people who were putting down money were betting more than the polls that Donald Trump would win.

And so that was kind of one of the major inflection points where you saw prediction market be more accurate than traditional polls.

Right, exactly.

It is, and I've seen a couple of those too.

And again, this is, it's betting.