Carl Hennigan

And if we don't come out of this thinking about these issues and really think strategically about value-based healthcare,

evidence-based healthcare, we'll end up with more of the same, which is the bit that's making me worried about where we're at and where we're going to go in the future.

Well, one of the most important aspects about deaf data is what we're really interested in is understanding when the peak occurs.

And what you're looking for is some bits of data that are reported in the same way every day.

So the most important data we found is that's useful is NHS England's reporting of hospital death data on the day that it occurred.

Yeah.

And if you look at that data, you'll see that it started to go up on about we started to see an emergence around about the 21st of March.

It started to go up and it was going up and up and up to about the 1st, 2nd of April.

And it was going up in a sort of trajectory of going like, oh, we're going into an exponential curve.

And then it started to flatten.

And it's flattened out around about 700 to 750 deaths per day.

The peak occurring around about the 8th of April with nearly 800 deaths on that day.

Remembering that we keep having deaths drift back as they get reported in.

So once you've hit the peak,

and it flatlines, that tells you that your infection has done the same.

And it did it about 21 days before.

Now, you will get deaths ongoing at that rate for some time as people come through because they all won't die in 21 days.

There'll be some seriously unwell people who will be left in hospital.

There may be 27, 28 days.

But you've got to