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Carl Hennigan

👤 Person
978 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

So that's number one.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

Number two is then is to say there are much more than a cough and a fever.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

There's a whole myriad of symptoms that appear in a systematic review, which has 19 studies in now, the majority in China, but some outside of China.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

So there is, yeah, systematic review of 15 cross-sectional studies and four case series.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

That include the study you've just included, which is one of the largest studies.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

There are lots of preprints.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

And then there's stuff that's gone through journals that actually has some element of peer review and some element we feel of consistency and accuracy.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

We're finding lots of problems with the preprints.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

We're just not quite sure how they arrived at the figures, whether they're accurate.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

They don't have tables with numerators and denominators in.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

So they've been rushed out there.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

So we feel like when we look at them, and we've even got one where it's been published twice with the same data and they don't look the same.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

So we're focusing on the peer reviewed publications.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

And I think there are some important aspects.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

The first thing we're railing against is providing a point estimate.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

So what you'll see is, for instance, 90% of people have a cough.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

Well, actually, across the 19 studies, cough in adults varies between 48 and 74%.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

So there's actually quite a wide range, depending on where you are in the context.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

Fever is much tighter, 89 to 96% of adults.

Talk Evidence
Talk Evidence covid-19 update - Confused symptoms, fatality rate uncertainty, Iceland’s testing

But get this, in children, fever is 28 to 60% of children.