Carl Hennigan

And that's incredibly important.

So like yesterday's went right back to 23rd of the March.

We can't quite understand what's happening there.

But actually, they're finding about deaths now that could have occurred a month ago.

But when you do that, one of the things is if you look at the shape of the data now, the peak deaths occurred on the 8th of April.

And it started to generally slow down.

The only caveat to that is the concerning picture that's happening in nursing homes.

Because if you think about it, if a third of all nursing homes potentially have the infection,

the mortality in that age group is incredibly high.

It could be 15%.

And that's where you can get a sort of second spike in deaths because we have likely failed to shield nursing homes and that vulnerable population.

So first thing is, I slightly have a problem with science, and I would say that because I'm all about the evidence, and I have been for 25 years now.

Science is about discourse, disagreement, about projections, whereas evidence is about trying to understand what we know based on the data at hand.

And there was an incredibly important point that was made is that you only give interventions to people for whom they will derive benefit.

Therefore, if you're referring a person into hospital who is elderly in a nursing home, has disability, the primary reason is, are they going to benefit?

If they're not going to benefit, then they're going to benefit from staying put.

It's the same as the ITU.

And I think what's happened here is we've panicked.

And many of the models said we're going to be overwhelmed eightfold.

And actually, first to say is in the early days, it looked like that, but we haven't been overwhelmed.