Carl Robichaud

Usually they're making some reference.

So, you know, for example, in February, Putin said, if...

If Ukraine attempts to take back Crimea, European countries will be in conflict with Russia, which is a leading nuclear power superior to many NATO countries in terms of nuclear force.

In that case, it's a vague threat, but it's referencing nuclear forces that could be used.

And then later, Putin mentions that they are raising the alert of their nuclear forces.

It turns out that appears to have been bogus, and the US intelligence community mentions they don't see any difference in the operational patterns of Russia's forces.

But it's clear that he's trying to manipulate risk and to raise the prospects that nuclear weapons would be used.

And presumably, it would be a tactical or battlefield nuclear weapon rather than a strategic nuclear weapon.

But we just don't know.

We know that Russian nuclear doctrine says that they would only use nuclear weapons if the existence of the state is threatened.

But at various points, Putin and other officials have made statements that seem to signal a broader interpretation of that in a way that I think we need to take seriously, even if we recognize that they have some desire to manipulate that risk.

Yeah, I think it's been a well-calibrated response overall.

And you could see there is not a rush to invoke nuclear weapons as a response.

there is a seriousness and a cautiousness through which the Biden administration has approached this issue while continuing to support Ukraine's righteous defense of its territory.

And I think it's a really hard line to walk because it's not clear where the lines are.

I don't think anyone knows for sure, but I suspect the US would strike with conventional forces, the units that launched the attack, and would also strike other forces that are of great value to Russia.

For example, sinking some warships in the Black Sea or striking other targets

and indicate that this represents an escalation in the war, but without expanding in a way that could lead to all-out nuclear war.

I think that would be the attempt.

Yeah.