Carrington Clarke

with that surprising increase in the unemployment rate that we recently saw.

Yeah, I always feel a bit sorry for Philip Lowe when it comes to how he's now remembered because, unfortunately, despite, you know, so much long distinguished service in the Reserve Bank, what people remember him for is that –

They feel he gave them a dud steer when it came to interest rates, that he indicated that he thought interest rates were going to be on hold.

They wouldn't be raised anytime soon.

Now, he actually put a lot of disclaimers around that statement, but it was more forthright than most comms advisors would have wanted him to be.

But unfortunately, that is the thing that he is now remembered for.

And I think the Reserve Bank has learnt a lesson from that.

And unfortunately, it means that they're sometimes less willing to engage in predictions about where things are heading.

So the language that Michelle Bullock used yesterday, when she was talking about how they are going to be guided by the data, I thought was interesting.

She said,

And you've referred to this, if you wait until you see it, it might be too late.

Now, that is interesting.

And so she's saying they got it wrong the other time around because they think they were too slow to act in hiking the first time around and then perhaps –

That was the lesson they'd had learnt last year, which is why we saw three rate cuts.

But actually, perhaps they did go too quickly on that particular occasion.

So now it's this question of when do you move?

Do you wait until inflation is down into the target range, which

according to the Reserve Bank forecast, is not until mid-2028.

It's a long time into the future, and obviously things can change, as we know, based on how much volatility there has been particularly over the last year.

Or do you think that they will act before that because they will be going based on what the trend shows them?