Carter Braxton Worth
speaker
43 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard Apr 2025
last heard Apr 2025
Carter Braxton Worth’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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Appearances
The weak form of analysis in terms of charting intent is to look at an index. That's like if you went to the doctor, I went, and I walked in, the guy from nine feet away said, yeah, you look okay. I do. I look okay, right? But you don't know about my blood pressure, whether I have diabetes or gout or cholesterol. You cannot study a patient by doing that. You have to
get in the chair, get in the gown, and then they take your blood pressure and they poke and prod. That's what this is. The weak form is saying, oh, the index is down only 9, 10. That's nothing. Underneath the surface, it's been massive deterioration and there's more to come.
Oh, yeah. Well, clients, I've been short. So I have two types of institutional clients, and those are pension plans. Those are long, only mutual complexes. Those are hedge funds. Those are family offices, endowments, and then individual investors. Now, this is not random. We reached the highest price to sales recorded, even higher than .com. 1929, March 2000, February 2025.
And we have hit our head to the penny at that line. Now, how big a drawdown? Why not 20%? That's garden variety, normal. Some people think it's going to be 50. I can't speak to that. I think that's unknown. But I am very confident in saying that the current sell-off is highly likely to stop here. Unlikely, right? Not likely to just be over.
Oh, at least 20%.
Tesla's just lost 50% of its value. Tesla has made no progress in four years. I'm a seller.
S&P 500. Bearish, lower. About to 48, 48.50 or thereabouts. Gold. Gold had a huge surge in 2019 and 20. Gold was sideways for four years and gold's had a similar surge. That which was hated and ridiculed and scorned is now loved. It's on the cover of the Wall Street Journal. We're backing away from it. We're going to let someone else trade that here. We think it's crowded and at risk.
I think that a general statement that is worthwhile, I think, is that there's nothing to be lost by postponing all new buying. If someone's that cost average down every month and plays golf instead, do it every month. But you have to know who you are in the market.
NVIDIA. Now, for instance, look at the insurance stocks. Look how good Chubb is.
how good aig is they're very defensive look out look at berkshire hathaway there's a reason for this right they're the only thing even with all the insurance craziness and very different fires and disasters so a place to hide there's a there's a good etf if you wanted to it's kie and that picks up aig and progressive and chubb and allstate and so forth and so on how about apple getting beat down with the tariffs
Apple-eyed nibble. How about Nike? Nike. Oh, that's unhappy. That's unhappy. And sometimes this happens. Great franchises, Nike, Disney. It's tempting always to think it's cheap. So Nike is the same price it was in 2015. It's now 2025. So adjusted for inflation, Nike's lost about 40% of its value. And that's a disaster. I wouldn't step in and buy that. Why? Just because it's down?
There's no thesis. Just one of the oldest rules of the book. Hard to do. I'm constantly holding my own finger off the buy button. Don't buy stocks in downtrends. Just don't do it.
Don't do it.
I just showed you one of the great markets. Insurance stocks are fantastic.
Yeah, well, there's some are life health insurers. They're not, Aflac doesn't care about disasters. You're talking about property casualty. That's a different kind of thing. But MetLife, Peru, Chubb, Chubb is, you know, doing, insuring antique clocks and that kind of thing. Case by case, they're not all great.
But again, this is a very fine area of the market to be in right now if one has to be long.
The thing that I would say if you really don't change your stripes, and that is the single most important thing. So someone told me once, there's only three kinds of hands in the market. There's weak-weak, there's weak-strong, and there's strong hands. You can be two of the three, but you can't be one of the three. So let's talk about it. Weak-weak is this. Ready? So weak-weak. is this.
We buy a stock at 10. It's 11. Feeling good. It's back to 10. It's 12. It's 11. It's 10. It's 9.50. It's 9. I don't want it. Walk away. Meaning you're willing to acknowledge error, move quickly. Bought it at 10. It was 11. We didn't get it. Now it's 9.50. Walk away. Weak, weak. Just hot potato. That's fine. And then there's strong hands. We buy it at 10. Goes to 11. Feeling good.
We think it's worth 30. Then it goes to 12. But it's back to 9 now. Back to 8. We buy some more. It's down to seven. Fine. We're confident. We think it's worth 30. Buy some more. It goes to five. It's cut in half. We bought it at 10. It's five. We're buying more. And ultimately, we're vindicated, the thing that you're talking about. And it comes out and turns, and it goes to 30.
That's strong hands. You took it. The third thing you cannot be is weak, strong. You think you're strong, but you're not. So you buy a 10 and then it's 11, then it's 10, then it's 11, then it's nine. And the other guy walks away. Weak, weak. She walks away. Get rid of it. Don't want it. The weak strongest. I can handle nine. Then it's an eight. I don't know. I don't know. Then it's a seven.
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