Casey Handmer

And this conventional wisdom is wrong.

It is not only the case that solar adoption, production price decreases are continuing, they're accelerating, and the rate that they're accelerating is still accelerating.

In the sense that its fitness for the markets that it is being produced for is increasing over time.

So it is still extremely early.

We're still at the Apple II computer era of solar.

Why isn't that true for... Well, let's say you're a bank and you're trying to decide whether to lend, I don't know, like, gee, a bunch of money to expand production of the gas turbines.

Yeah.

You can write them the check today and then they'll start scaling up their factories and then they'll start to see the benefits in three or four or five years.

You don't know if the AI bubble will burst by then.

You don't know if China will have invaded Taiwan by then.

You don't know if Siemens or Philips or someone will have out-competed you.

You don't know if GE's major looming structural problems will cause it to be unable to compete as it has in the past.

You also don't know.

In order to make that money back, you have to then operate that plant at that capacity for 20 years.

And if I was looking at the same charts as they're looking at right now, I'd say, what are the odds that in 25 years' time,

we can produce gas turbines at a price that is relevant in a world where solar is already at its current price.

And batteries are at a price where they're already.

You cannot win.

Did they end up indeed ramping up their production?

I think so.