Casey Handmer

100 kilograms or something like that.

So we're talking like four or five ohms of increase of total battery per person.

That trend is only going to continue.

And then you say, well, okay, we've got batteries that are performing this temporal arbitrage and the sun comes up every day, right?

So like the power swing from like midday, you're otherwise curtailing the solar array to dusk when everyone's watching TV and cooking dinner or running the air conditioners to cool off in the evening is very predictable, right?

Whereas like, oh, we had like...

Really bad weather, so we had to use the power line that runs to the extra power plants over by Hoover Dam or something.

It doesn't get used nearly as much, or its peak utilization happens almost never.

Which means that the utilization of the batteries is, on average, let's say 300 days a year, and the utilization of your most expensive grid, highest voltage grid assets is much, much lower.

And that includes the substations and transformers and stuff that serve that.

So it's a really bad position to be in if you're a grid operator.

Because you've got this aging, existing thing that the batteries are cannibalizing, the batteries are being installed behind the meter, you don't have a say in whether they're being installed, how they're being used.

All you know is that you're

that your utilization of your asset where you get to charge top dollar for it is just dropping year after year after year after year as the same time as your operating costs are increasing year after year after year.

So it's just very clear that like the average distance the electron is going to travel between generation and consumption is going to decrease in the future pretty radically.

It's already decreasing.

It's going to continue to decrease.

Well, actually in the limit you can, because you can put them on trucks and drive them around.

So there could be a capacity market for batteries where you drive them around to people who need them in a pinch.

In practice, it's going to be cheaper just to double the size of your battery.