Casey Noon

People who I don't think were feeling precarious a year or two ago are now, and I think that's just a really interesting social marker.

I do too.

And one thing that is making it slightly better is that I did see this coming.

And I do get to crow about my correct prediction I made on our prediction episode back at the end of last year, which was that 2026, I predicted was the last year to buy a house in San Francisco.

which now appears to be true.

The real estate market is going nuts.

Houses are going for many multiples of their asking price.

There was a story this week.

Did you see this one about the San Francisco homes that are on sale asking for anthropic or open AI stock instead of cash?

Yes.

So there are two other things about these IPOs that I want to discuss with you.

One of them is the effect it's going to have on philanthropy.

Because one of the strange characteristics of these particular companies is that many of their employees, and I would say this especially applies to Anthropic, but there's also a piece of this at OpenAI, are committed to effective altruism and other similar philanthropic movements that basically teach you that if you want to make a maximum impact on the world, you should make a bunch of money and then give it away.

And so nonprofits, philanthropies, donor advisory networks in and around San Francisco are now starting to ask, like, what if we just have this insurgence of new philanthropic capital coming from these IPOs?

Our mutual friend Nan Rantzhoff wrote a great post about this the other day calling it the third wave of philanthropy, basically, where you have...

tens of billions or possibly hundreds of billions of dollars sort of flooding into these charitable movements and causes um how does that affect like what gets funded are there going to be new institutions that need to be built to sort of absorb all of this philanthropic capital i think this is something that people outside san francisco don't quite understand is like how much money is going to be flowing into these philanthropies over the next couple of years

Well, it was not just matching.

So there are two things that Anthropic did that sort of speak to their...

I don't know, historical ties to effective altruism and that sort of world of philanthropy.

One is that all of the co-founders pledged to give at least 80% of their wealth to charity.