Catherine Ann Edwards

Thank you again for having me.

It reflects primarily the longest government shutdown in U.S.

history, which shaped a considerable amount of growth off of our economy.

It comes on the heels of a lot of bad news.

There are reasons why it was bad, why it was bad that we can maybe wave away, but we can't wave away all of the other bad news in our economy.

So, yes, the the shutdown was a big component of it, but we still have overall economic weakness.

We're not seeing strength in every quarter except for this one.

Yes, it's a very worrying trend, especially considering that that report does not reflect the world since the war in Iran began.

So that's a February print.

The war started right at the end of February, so it's not taking into account anything that's happened to, say, oil prices since then.

So it's an indicator that our prices were already running a little too hot before all of this happened.

Absolutely, and in a horrible way, right?

Not in a good way.

But this time around, it's worth noting that while there are echoes to the late 1970s, we have a much better Fed.

Back in the 1970s, we didn't have a target inflation.

They had been wish-washing on interest rates for half of a decade.

And they had not signaled that they took inflation seriously, which is one of the reasons why it got out of hand.

By the Fed's own historical admission, which you could read on their website, we are in a much better position this time because we have a Fed that has clearly kept its eye on the ball.

You can't come under the worst political fire a Federal Reserve chairman has ever come under and not blink if you don't take inflation seriously.

I mean, it feels like we've been through enough.