Catherine Colitis
Appearances
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Yeah, so the Catholic Church is like so many, I think, global religious bodies in a sort of moment of transition, right? We're in a moment of greater religious transition than we have been since the Enlightenment, right? Really in the past 300 years. And there's a couple of factors.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
We all, particularly in the United States, have a really good understanding of this idea of culture war and this divide between progressives and traditionalists, which is definitely a factor in this decision. But there's also a geographic element to this as well. The Catholic Church, like Christianity writ large, is in demographic trouble in Western Europe and North America.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Yet it is growing exponentially in Asia, Africa, Latin America, places that are kind of collectively called the Global South.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
And so there's increasing pressure to have A pope who reflects that reality. Of course, this last pope was the first Latin American pope. He was from Argentina, but he was also the son of Italian immigrants. Right. So there's this kind of he sort of occupied this middle space.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
So this is the conundrum. Most every bit of good data we have about why people leave the Catholic Church and leave Christianity writ large is largely centered around these issues of gender and sexuality, primarily the failure of the Catholic Church to become more progressive with respect to women, with respect to LGBT people.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
And this is the tension then because these are the factors that are driving people out of the Catholic Church in North America and Western Europe. And yet at the same time, people are much more conservative on these issues in places like Africa and Asia where the church is growing.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Latin America is a little bit more of a wild card, but overall Catholics are more socially conservative in those places.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Well, for many people, particularly conservatives, traditionalists in the Catholic Church, the reign of Pope Francis was one that was very, very difficult. And they see this as an opportunity to return to a more traditional papacy in the model of Pope Benedict, Pope John Paul II.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
And there are some people in the progressive camp, particularly in North America and Western Europe, who don't think Pope Francis went far enough, that he didn't go far enough in addressing inclusion for women and LGBT people, and that he didn't go far enough in addressing the sexual abuse scandal, which has, of course, been at the center of Catholic life in many ways and Catholic politics for the past two decades.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
The primary way it will look different is that Pope Francis has now appointed 80% of the cardinal electors. So that is the cardinals in the College of Cardinals who are allowed to vote for Pope. 80% of those, 108 of the 135 have been appointed by Pope Francis.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Yeah, a little bit. Absolutely. And, you know, I would say about 50 of those electors are really what we might call like a pastoralist in the image of Pope Francis. I think it's important to remember that as much as we think of Pope Francis as sort of a reforming pope, he didn't change Catholic doctrine all that much, right?
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
He pursued Catholic doctrine in a way that one might call much more pastoral. So the example of the little boy whose atheist father had died, Pope Francis didn't change Catholic doctrine to say that non-believers, that the unbaptized would go to heaven. What he did is he told that little boy that his father was probably in heaven, right? That's a different bent than changing Catholic doctrine.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
And I would say, you know, 50 of the cardinals now, give or take, depending on how you want to cut this, are really in that theological, pastoral, papal model.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Yes, we have some pretty clear frontrunners at this point, particularly in the immediate period after the Pope's death. Some people have really emerged. In the traditionalist camp, the real frontrunner is a man named Cardinal Robert Serra from Guinea. All the frontrunners in the traditionalist camp, more or less, are Africans. There is a Hungarian, but more or less, they're Africans.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
So Cardinal Robert Serra, if you go on a lot of traditionalist Catholic social media at the moment, you are going to see a lot of love for Cardinal Robert Serra. He is a very traditionalist cardinal, a very traditionalist theologian and pastor.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Certainly he's very traditional, one might even say a bit draconian on issues of gender and sexuality, but also on liturgical issues, questions like the Latin mass, things that people outside the Catholic church or outside of sort of religious circles don't tend to debate. And you also have sort of the far reach, what I would call the far reach progressives, right?
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
People like Cardinal José Mendoza from Portugal. He is only 59, and so it is very unlikely he would become pope, quite frankly. But he's very progressive, I think, in the ways that we sort of think about progressiveness. even in an American political sense. So, for example, he has shown some real sympathies for a Benedictine nun who is interested in the ordination of women and who is pro-choice.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
He's the far end of Cardinal Serra, right? What we'll probably get, though, and right now, Vegas, the betting odds, the last time I checked, we're on this Filipino cardinal. You can always trust the Vegas betting odds because people actually put money on it, right?
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Like actually bet on it. Cardinal Luis Tagale from the Philippines. This is, I think, the inspired choice, not to be too punny about it. He is sometimes called the Asian Francis. So he is theologically, I would say, very moderate, but pastorally sort of open in the way that we saw with Francis.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
The Philippines is one of the most Catholic countries in the world. It's in the heart of Asia. You would get a non-white pope, which I think is important at this point, who is also sort of in keeping with the general ideological, theological, philosophical mood of the conclave at the moment.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
I think that particularly his very outspoken position on the conflict in Gaza would probably disqualify him at this point.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
I think that it's one thing when you have a sitting pope who's able to take those hard lines and who has developed a good relationship around Catholic relations with Judaism and Israel. Pope Francis had a great record for a pope in terms of his relationship with Israel and his relationship with Judaism. It's different when you bring in a new pope, I would argue.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
I think if we have Cardinal Tagale become the next Pope, it is a sort of continuation of the Franciscan model. First, it does signal in some ways this not turning away from Western Europe and North America, but an acknowledgement that where the church is growing, what the average Catholic looks like is changing.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
I think for many people, this approach, what we might call a Francis approach to the tensions within the Catholic church is the way in which the majority of the cardinals understand the best approach to be. If you allow flexibility...
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
regional flexibility, local flexibility, parish-level flexibility in how that doctrine is applied, you can reconcile these real tensions over ideology, over theology, over doctrine, over morality that exists within the Catholic Church today and really exists within every Christian tradition and every society at this point.
Today, Explained
Conclave (2025)
Absolutely. I think in terms of liturgical reforms, the liturgical reforms of Vatican II and beyond, as much as there are people on traditionalist Latin mass Facebook groups and discords around the world who would like to see that change, no pope is going to be able to unring that bell. I don't think even Cardinal Serra could do that.