We try to divine who will follow Pope Francis and introduce you to one of his many legacies: the first millennial saint. This episode was produced by Victoria Chamberlin and Avishay Artsy, edited by Amina Al-Sadi, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Gabrielle Berbey, engineered by Andrea Kristinsdottir and Patrick Boyd, and hosted by Sean Rameswaram. Listen to Today, Explained ad-free by becoming a Vox Member: vox.com/members. Transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast. Pope Francis praying with priests at the Vatican several years ago. Photo by FILIPPO MONTEFORTE/AFP via Getty Images. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Chapter 1: Who is the host and what is the episode about?
We may never know what Pope Francis thought of converted Catholic J.D. Vance because he died shortly after meeting our vice president. The world will miss its cool pope who is best known for caring about the poor, rejecting the frills of the papacy, and talking smack about American politicians. But he also dropped an album once. It's a lot of prayer mixed with a lot of straight-up pop music.
Since it's Earth Day, here's a taste of cuidar el planeta, or take care of the planet. What comes after Pope Francis? Coming up on Today Explained.
a ti solo
This week on a touch more, we are live at deep blues business of women's sports summit. Our special guest is Chelsea Clinton, who tells us what it means for her to be an investor in women's sports and what we can all learn from gutsy women. Plus we break down the results of the WNBA draft and look ahead to the W's upcoming season.
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Catherine Colitis is a research associate at the Institute of Orthodox Christian Studies in England's Cambridge. We reached out to her to ask her about Conclave 2025.
Yeah, so the Catholic Church is like so many, I think, global religious bodies in a sort of moment of transition, right? We're in a moment of greater religious transition than we have been since the Enlightenment, right? Really in the past 300 years. And there's a couple of factors.
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Chapter 2: What is the current state of the Catholic Church globally?
We all, particularly in the United States, have a really good understanding of this idea of culture war and this divide between progressives and traditionalists, which is definitely a factor in this decision. But there's also a geographic element to this as well. The Catholic Church, like Christianity writ large, is in demographic trouble in Western Europe and North America.
Yet it is growing exponentially in Asia, Africa, Latin America, places that are kind of collectively called the Global South.
The Catholic population in Africa has grown significantly, from around 185 million in 2013 to an estimated 230 million by the end of 2025.
The Catholic Church in South Korea has shown exponential growth in the last 50 years. There were about half a million Catholics in the country in the 1960s. But today, there are nearly 6 million.
And so there's increasing pressure to have A pope who reflects that reality. Of course, this last pope was the first Latin American pope. He was from Argentina, but he was also the son of Italian immigrants. Right. So there's this kind of he sort of occupied this middle space.
I'm sure the church is elated to be growing in the global south, but I'm sure it's. equally miserable to be shrinking in Western Europe and North America. Why is it shrinking in Western Europe and North America? Do you know?
So this is the conundrum. Most every bit of good data we have about why people leave the Catholic Church and leave Christianity writ large is largely centered around these issues of gender and sexuality, primarily the failure of the Catholic Church to become more progressive with respect to women, with respect to LGBT people.
And this is the tension then because these are the factors that are driving people out of the Catholic Church in North America and Western Europe. And yet at the same time, people are much more conservative on these issues in places like Africa and Asia where the church is growing.
Latin America is a little bit more of a wild card, but overall Catholics are more socially conservative in those places.
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Chapter 3: Why is the Catholic Church shrinking in Western Europe and North America?
Is that the papal equivalent of like trying to pack the Supreme Court?
Yeah, a little bit. Absolutely. And, you know, I would say about 50 of those electors are really what we might call like a pastoralist in the image of Pope Francis. I think it's important to remember that as much as we think of Pope Francis as sort of a reforming pope, he didn't change Catholic doctrine all that much, right?
He pursued Catholic doctrine in a way that one might call much more pastoral. So the example of the little boy whose atheist father had died, Pope Francis didn't change Catholic doctrine to say that non-believers, that the unbaptized would go to heaven. What he did is he told that little boy that his father was probably in heaven, right? That's a different bent than changing Catholic doctrine.
And I would say, you know, 50 of the cardinals now, give or take, depending on how you want to cut this, are really in that theological, pastoral, papal model.
Okay, so who are the contenders in this conclave? Do we have some frontrunners?
Yes, we have some pretty clear frontrunners at this point, particularly in the immediate period after the Pope's death. Some people have really emerged. In the traditionalist camp, the real frontrunner is a man named Cardinal Robert Serra from Guinea. All the frontrunners in the traditionalist camp, more or less, are Africans. There is a Hungarian, but more or less, they're Africans.
So Cardinal Robert Serra, if you go on a lot of traditionalist Catholic social media at the moment, you are going to see a lot of love for Cardinal Robert Serra. He is a very traditionalist cardinal, a very traditionalist theologian and pastor.
Should not a biological man use the men's restroom? How simple can that concept be?
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Chapter 4: How does the tension between progressivism and conservatism affect the Catholic Church?
Certainly he's very traditional, one might even say a bit draconian on issues of gender and sexuality, but also on liturgical issues, questions like the Latin mass, things that people outside the Catholic church or outside of sort of religious circles don't tend to debate. And you also have sort of the far reach, what I would call the far reach progressives, right?
People like Cardinal José Mendoza from Portugal. He is only 59, and so it is very unlikely he would become pope, quite frankly. But he's very progressive, I think, in the ways that we sort of think about progressiveness. even in an American political sense. So, for example, he has shown some real sympathies for a Benedictine nun who is interested in the ordination of women and who is pro-choice.
He's the far end of Cardinal Serra, right? What we'll probably get, though, and right now, Vegas, the betting odds, the last time I checked, we're on this Filipino cardinal. You can always trust the Vegas betting odds because people actually put money on it, right?
A holy, holy bet. Yeah, love it.
Like actually bet on it. Cardinal Luis Tagale from the Philippines. This is, I think, the inspired choice, not to be too punny about it. He is sometimes called the Asian Francis. So he is theologically, I would say, very moderate, but pastorally sort of open in the way that we saw with Francis.
Many things are changing, but the living conditions of some people have remained stagnant or even worse. And I call this a scandal.
The Philippines is one of the most Catholic countries in the world. It's in the heart of Asia. You would get a non-white pope, which I think is important at this point, who is also sort of in keeping with the general ideological, theological, philosophical mood of the conclave at the moment.
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Chapter 5: What makes the 2025 conclave different from previous ones?
Got it. And you didn't mention perhaps the most delicious choice, Pier Battista Pizzabala. Why is that?
I think that particularly his very outspoken position on the conflict in Gaza would probably disqualify him at this point.
Interesting, because another famous Catholic who had outspoken views on the conflict in Gaza was Pope Francis himself. Is that to say that that turned off this conclave?
I think that it's one thing when you have a sitting pope who's able to take those hard lines and who has developed a good relationship around Catholic relations with Judaism and Israel. Pope Francis had a great record for a pope in terms of his relationship with Israel and his relationship with Judaism. It's different when you bring in a new pope, I would argue.
So it sounds like Asian Francis is the favorite, and it sounds like Asian Francis would perhaps just, you know, be a passing of the baton, so to speak, in terms of Francis's progressive politics. What does that mean for the Catholic Church in the years ahead, if indeed Asian Francis is selected?
I think if we have Cardinal Tagale become the next Pope, it is a sort of continuation of the Franciscan model. First, it does signal in some ways this not turning away from Western Europe and North America, but an acknowledgement that where the church is growing, what the average Catholic looks like is changing.
I think for many people, this approach, what we might call a Francis approach to the tensions within the Catholic church is the way in which the majority of the cardinals understand the best approach to be. If you allow flexibility...
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Chapter 6: Who are the frontrunners to be the next pope in the 2025 conclave?
regional flexibility, local flexibility, parish-level flexibility in how that doctrine is applied, you can reconcile these real tensions over ideology, over theology, over doctrine, over morality that exists within the Catholic Church today and really exists within every Christian tradition and every society at this point.
Chapter 7: What are the profiles and stances of key papal candidates like Cardinal Serra, Cardinal Mendoza, and Cardinal Tagale?
So if we get Cardinal Tagale, we might continue to see mariachi mass in the southwestern United States.
Absolutely. I think in terms of liturgical reforms, the liturgical reforms of Vatican II and beyond, as much as there are people on traditionalist Latin mass Facebook groups and discords around the world who would like to see that change, no pope is going to be able to unring that bell. I don't think even Cardinal Serra could do that.
The biggest movie in the country is Sinners, but when Today Explained returns, we're going to talk about Saints.
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The regular season is in the rear view, and now it's time for the games that matter the most. This is Kenny Beecham, and playoff basketball is finally here. On Small Ball, we're diving deep into every series, every crunch time finish, every coaching adjustment that can make or break a championship run. Who's building for a 16-win marathon? Which superstar will submit their legacy?
And which role player is about to become a household name? with so many fascinating first-round matchups. Will the West be the bloodbath we anticipate? Will the East be as predictable as we think? Can the Celtics defend their title? Can Steph Curry, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard push the young teams at the top?
I'll be bringing the expertise, the passion, the genuine opinion you need for the most exciting time of the NBA calendar. Small Ball is your essential companion for the NBA postseason. Join me, Kenny Beecham, for new episodes of Small Ball throughout the playoffs. Don't miss Small Ball with Kenny Beecham.
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Chapter 8: What could the election of Cardinal Luis Tagale mean for the future of the Catholic Church?
There was a pizza box with a cartoon Pope Francis on it sitting right behind him.
Hey, you know, Philly people, we are proud people. I say we, I'm from North Jersey, so pizza is really important. So I wouldn't even call this pizza, but anyway, it's pizza boxes that says, welcome Pope Francis, Philadelphia 2015. There's a picture of the Pope waving in front of the skyline of Philadelphia. All right, enough about the pizza.
On to the main event, the first, Millennial Saint Carlo Cutis. Why was this kid so important to Pope Francis?
I think it was one of his big projects that he did. The idea emerged probably right as Pope Francis was becoming Pope. Carlo had died in 2006. Word was spreading. I mean, what happens with these popular saints is that there is this grassroots movement that usually happens. And then when it gets really big, then the church kind of comes in and makes it official.
So he was born in London to Italian parents who were business people. The father was in insurance and the mom was in publishing. He was raised by nannies from like Ireland and Poland. So they were the ones that were religious. The parents always said they weren't really practicing Catholics. They weren't very religious.
But somehow I guess that religiosity passed through to him from his nannies who raised him. And he was already kind of seen as a kid, at least a lot of the stories go, as somebody who was a religious but down-to-earth kid.
And because, of course, he used to say, I have everything. I have a house. I have the love of my parents. I have all what I need. And these people are without anything. How can I be, you know, quite peaceful seeing this poorness?
So there's a story, of course, where he's getting maybe bullied in school. Like a lot of teenagers, you know, suffer. So it's a very relatable story. And, you know, one of the nannies said, why don't you just like hit him back? Like, why don't you, you know, stick up for yourself? And he said, well, Jesus wouldn't want me to do that.
A lot of the stories emphasize the fact that he, you know, had some struggles. He loved Nutella and had struggles with his weight, you know, and self-esteem. It's very, very relatable. He played Halo. So it's not like he's playing only, you know, he's playing the PlayStation.
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