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Chamath

👤 Person
769 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

Instead of a C-check getting you 5%, it got you one.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

I don't know what it is, but we need to do something because the status quo doesn't work. I think there's so many good points that we're hitting here. I'll just say the other thing to build on your point about, hey, these take less capital. You have to look at what does your ownership, after you've been diluted half by 50% as a seed or series A investor, you're going to be down to half.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

I don't know what it is, but we need to do something because the status quo doesn't work. I think there's so many good points that we're hitting here. I'll just say the other thing to build on your point about, hey, these take less capital. You have to look at what does your ownership, after you've been diluted half by 50% as a seed or series A investor, you're going to be down to half.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

So if you own 10%, you own five. If you own seven like YC or we do in a company, you're going to own three. You're going to really have to model out, is the valuation you're looking at, what does it pencil out to for an outcome?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

So if you own 10%, you own five. If you own seven like YC or we do in a company, you're going to own three. You're going to really have to model out, is the valuation you're looking at, what does it pencil out to for an outcome?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

And when I did this with our investments, I saw a leak in my game, which was, hey, I'm putting $100K into a $25 million round or a $50 million round as a follow-on investment to support the founder. okay, what does that do for my LPs? Well, that 100K would need to hit some extraordinary outcome, five, 10, 20, $40 billion in order for us to return the fund.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

And when I did this with our investments, I saw a leak in my game, which was, hey, I'm putting $100K into a $25 million round or a $50 million round as a follow-on investment to support the founder. okay, what does that do for my LPs? Well, that 100K would need to hit some extraordinary outcome, five, 10, 20, $40 billion in order for us to return the fund.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

So now my team understands, hey, take that 125K, that 250K, that 500K, do four more accelerator companies with it because those could return the fund. And that fund math, people stopped doing. I think all these fund managers who are getting wiped out, they never penciled out What does this company I'm giving a million dollars need to hit in order for me to return my fund?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

So now my team understands, hey, take that 125K, that 250K, that 500K, do four more accelerator companies with it because those could return the fund. And that fund math, people stopped doing. I think all these fund managers who are getting wiped out, they never penciled out What does this company I'm giving a million dollars need to hit in order for me to return my fund?

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

And now they're finding out that it doesn't work.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

And now they're finding out that it doesn't work.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

I mean, it's basically the capital deployments gone back to where it was in 2019, let's call it. So again, we had this bubble. The foam started building in 2020, but you had COVID, people didn't know what to think. So there was some restraint, I guess. And then 2021, it just went wild.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

I mean, it's basically the capital deployments gone back to where it was in 2019, let's call it. So again, we had this bubble. The foam started building in 2020, but you had COVID, people didn't know what to think. So there was some restraint, I guess. And then 2021, it just went wild.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

That was nuts, man.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

That was nuts, man.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

If you could return capital, you're going to look like a Euro. Also, Chamath, I remember, I don't know if it was Michael Moritz or Doug Leone, but I was talking to Sequoia about the time dispersion of your fund, like over what period of time are you deploying a fund? And man, people started deploying funds in 18 months because they can raise the next fund so quick.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

If you could return capital, you're going to look like a Euro. Also, Chamath, I remember, I don't know if it was Michael Moritz or Doug Leone, but I was talking to Sequoia about the time dispersion of your fund, like over what period of time are you deploying a fund? And man, people started deploying funds in 18 months because they can raise the next fund so quick.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

So like, screw it, I'm gonna deploy this fund in 18 months, 24 months. And LPs were saying to me like, what period are you gonna deploy this? And I said, well, you know, I was taught by Fred Wilson and this person, 36 months, 48 months would be a good, window to deploy capital because, you know, it smooths it out.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

So like, screw it, I'm gonna deploy this fund in 18 months, 24 months. And LPs were saying to me like, what period are you gonna deploy this? And I said, well, you know, I was taught by Fred Wilson and this person, 36 months, 48 months would be a good, window to deploy capital because, you know, it smooths it out.

All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Big Fed rate cuts, AI killing call centers, $50B govt boondoggle, VC's rough years, Trump/Kamala

Just by the way, I feel better about those late – bloomers in my portfolio because i know the marks are real because if they're getting marked up now then it's very very solid compared to frankly some of those marks that we got in the bubble year like 2021 i call them tiger marks whether it was tiger or not