Chamath

And you'll notice there's not a lot of companies from the recent cohorts out of the 50 companies featured, only three are from the classes after 2020, most of them being from the early 2010s. Obviously, that's because they've been around longer, but it sparked a big discussion that there were so many winners from the 2009 to 2016 era, and that maybe the class size at YC has expanded a whole bunch.

And you'll notice there's not a lot of companies from the recent cohorts out of the 50 companies featured, only three are from the classes after 2020, most of them being from the early 2010s. Obviously, that's because they've been around longer, but it sparked a big discussion that there were so many winners from the 2009 to 2016 era, and that maybe the class size at YC has expanded a whole bunch.

And maybe that's part of the problem. But there's a bigger problem in VC that we've talked about here. Here's a chart from Carta that just shows the percentage of VC funds that have made a distribution since 2017. Over 40% of 2018 vintage funds have not made a single distribution yet.

And maybe that's part of the problem. But there's a bigger problem in VC that we've talked about here. Here's a chart from Carta that just shows the percentage of VC funds that have made a distribution since 2017. Over 40% of 2018 vintage funds have not made a single distribution yet.

And it's getting to the point, year five, six, or seven, where you probably should have had some distributions occur. Obviously, a lot of this has to do with maybe M&A and those early wins being taken off the table. We've talked about that a whole bunch, but here's the chart that kind of gets really interesting.

And it's getting to the point, year five, six, or seven, where you probably should have had some distributions occur. Obviously, a lot of this has to do with maybe M&A and those early wins being taken off the table. We've talked about that a whole bunch, but here's the chart that kind of gets really interesting.

An explosion in fund managers occurred, as we all know, and this chart shows from PitchBook, the first-time VC managers that raised a second VC fund as a share of all first-time VC managers, and it's now down from above 50% to below 50%. gosh, 15%. So what are your thoughts here, Shama?

An explosion in fund managers occurred, as we all know, and this chart shows from PitchBook, the first-time VC managers that raised a second VC fund as a share of all first-time VC managers, and it's now down from above 50% to below 50%. gosh, 15%. So what are your thoughts here, Shama?

And that was M&A in year, what, five or six sacks?

And that was M&A in year, what, five or six sacks?

Well, and thank God for the secondary markets even emerging, because at the same time that the secondary markets emerged and people were willing to buy venture assets going into their second decade.

Well, and thank God for the secondary markets even emerging, because at the same time that the secondary markets emerged and people were willing to buy venture assets going into their second decade.

Yeah. And I took advantage of almost every time I had one of those opportunities to sell some shares, pair some positions. And that's how we got our DPI as well, because let's face it, Melina Khan and the anti-tech sentiment has led to these large companies not buying startups. And instead, they compete with them. They just say, we'll build it in-house because you're not letting us buy it.

Yeah. And I took advantage of almost every time I had one of those opportunities to sell some shares, pair some positions. And that's how we got our DPI as well, because let's face it, Melina Khan and the anti-tech sentiment has led to these large companies not buying startups. And instead, they compete with them. They just say, we'll build it in-house because you're not letting us buy it.

And it's broken the entire ecosystem now.

And it's broken the entire ecosystem now.

Well, Saks, right now we're seeing people do things like selling their early SpaceX or their early Stripe, whatever it is, to other VCs, to later stage funds, a lot of ways to try to secure DPI. What's your thoughts on the state of venture today, given all this data that we're looking at today?

Well, Saks, right now we're seeing people do things like selling their early SpaceX or their early Stripe, whatever it is, to other VCs, to later stage funds, a lot of ways to try to secure DPI. What's your thoughts on the state of venture today, given all this data that we're looking at today?

Well, two points. So first, I agree with Chamath that the amount of time it takes to generate an outcome for, I'd say, most startups is longer than the 10-year period of these funds. And these funds can be extended up to 12 years usually, but then what do you do after that? This takes a lot longer than that in a lot of cases to generate a meaningful outcome.

Well, two points. So first, I agree with Chamath that the amount of time it takes to generate an outcome for, I'd say, most startups is longer than the 10-year period of these funds. And these funds can be extended up to 12 years usually, but then what do you do after that? This takes a lot longer than that in a lot of cases to generate a meaningful outcome.