Chamath

So that's how long it took. And now they just did growth rounds and they're kind of off to the races. But I could easily be 10 years from here to get to a liquidity event. So you're talking about more like 15-year funds. So I agree with that point. The second thing, though, is that The big thing that's happened in our industry is we had a bubble in 2020 and especially 2021.

And we just had a ton of capital come into the industry because the Fed and the federal government airdropped $10 trillion of liquidity onto the economy in reaction to COVID. And not all that money went into VC. It went into a lot of places. But the VC industry was flooded with cash. And you see this in the deployments.

And we just had a ton of capital come into the industry because the Fed and the federal government airdropped $10 trillion of liquidity onto the economy in reaction to COVID. And not all that money went into VC. It went into a lot of places. But the VC industry was flooded with cash. And you see this in the deployments.

I mean, in those bubble years, there was something like $200 billion a year of capital deployment when normally it's $60 to $100 billion. So if twice the amount of money is going into the industry and is being deployed, and rounds are now twice as big, and valuations are twice as big, that has a huge effect on returns. So for example, the average venture fund is like a 2x return.

I mean, in those bubble years, there was something like $200 billion a year of capital deployment when normally it's $60 to $100 billion. So if twice the amount of money is going into the industry and is being deployed, and rounds are now twice as big, and valuations are twice as big, that has a huge effect on returns. So for example, the average venture fund is like a 2x return.

But if the entry prices were artificially double, then there goes your return right there. You get 2x times 1x. This is such a key point. Look, I think we're just in the hangover of this massive liquidity bubble that didn't originate in the venture capital industry. It came from, frankly, the federal government. But we're just downstream of that.

But if the entry prices were artificially double, then there goes your return right there. You get 2x times 1x. This is such a key point. Look, I think we're just in the hangover of this massive liquidity bubble that didn't originate in the venture capital industry. It came from, frankly, the federal government. But we're just downstream of that.

Now, what I would say is I do think we're at the tail end of working that out. And the good news is that we now have maybe the most exciting tech wave ever, which is AI. Definitely the most exciting tech wave since the internet. came along in the mid to late 90s. So the hope is we're finally going to have really exciting things to invest in again.

Now, what I would say is I do think we're at the tail end of working that out. And the good news is that we now have maybe the most exciting tech wave ever, which is AI. Definitely the most exciting tech wave since the internet. came along in the mid to late 90s. So the hope is we're finally going to have really exciting things to invest in again.

But yeah, look, I think we're at the tail end of the last cycle and the beginning of a new cycle.

But yeah, look, I think we're at the tail end of the last cycle and the beginning of a new cycle.

And vintage distortion is so real. It's very hard to understand how each of these vintages with your late bloomers or overpriced things, companies getting $100 million rounds at a billion dollar valuation before they have product market fit. And those distortions,

And vintage distortion is so real. It's very hard to understand how each of these vintages with your late bloomers or overpriced things, companies getting $100 million rounds at a billion dollar valuation before they have product market fit. And those distortions,

were just so pronounced the last five to 10 years that we're now sorting them out like a house of mirrors where you don't know who's tall, who's fat, who's skinny, what the reality is here. And the other big thing is this peanut butter effect that I tweeted about today. During peak Zerp, you had all these exceptional team members

were just so pronounced the last five to 10 years that we're now sorting them out like a house of mirrors where you don't know who's tall, who's fat, who's skinny, what the reality is here. And the other big thing is this peanut butter effect that I tweeted about today. During peak Zerp, you had all these exceptional team members

You know, the number two, three, four, five person at a company that was doing great, they would leave to start their own company. So the talent got spread. Then you had so many of these founders rushing into the same vertical. So you'd have 20 startups because there was too much capital pursuing the same opportunity. You pursued the same opportunity. What happens to earnings?

You know, the number two, three, four, five person at a company that was doing great, they would leave to start their own company. So the talent got spread. Then you had so many of these founders rushing into the same vertical. So you'd have 20 startups because there was too much capital pursuing the same opportunity. You pursued the same opportunity. What happens to earnings?

They get spread then. What happens to customers? They get spread across 20 different products competing for the same customer. And then what happens with, you know, ownership stakes for us as GPs and LPs, Chamath, the ownership stakes, because the valuations went up so much, they got spread like peanut butter. And instead of a Series A getting you 20% of a company, it got you 10.

They get spread then. What happens to customers? They get spread across 20 different products competing for the same customer. And then what happens with, you know, ownership stakes for us as GPs and LPs, Chamath, the ownership stakes, because the valuations went up so much, they got spread like peanut butter. And instead of a Series A getting you 20% of a company, it got you 10.

Instead of a C-check getting you 5%, it got you one.