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Chao Deng

👤 Speaker
43 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

Healthcare and social assistance jobs continue to power the overall job gains.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

We saw healthcare add 54,000 jobs in April.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

One surprise was the retail sector.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

We saw jobs there in super centers and warehouse clubs.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

Broadly speaking, jobs are coming through in more sectors than just healthcare.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

Right.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

For a long time, the Federal Reserve has wondered whether it needs to keep cutting interest rates to support what appears to be a shaky labor market.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

Now that we've had this strong report, I think it puts more focus on the inflation data, which we'll see next week from the Labor Department for the month of April.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

We know inflation is drifting up instead of down because of tariffs and also because of the effects of the Iran war.

WSJ What’s News
Is the Labor Market Gaining Strength?

And so I think we're going to see the Fed focusing increasingly on that.

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

Even before this report came out, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was warning that

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

there could be potential distortions and really playing down the data.

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

Well, there was a government shutdown that lasted to mid-November that prevented the Labor Department from collecting

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

some of the data that they normally would have to compile the report.

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

So even going into today's release, economists were warning that some of the technical workarounds the agency had to use meant that the November figure might be biased a bit downwards.

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

Because the Labor Bureau wasn't able to collect data in October,

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

Economists think that they made this assumption that housing costs didn't move much that month.

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

And because the housing component composes a big part of the headline inflation, that workaround could have put downward pressure on the headline inflation reading.

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

And then because the government shutdown lasted through November 12th, at that point, when the labor statistics officials came back to survey data, it was right around Black Friday and Thanksgiving where you traditionally see a lot of holiday discounting.

WSJ What’s News
Why Economists Are Urging Caution About November’s Inflation Report

And so, again, some of the numbers collected could have been distorted by that.