Charlie Songhurst
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And then you see the same in this sort of almost comic battle over Tesla as a stock.
The Apple one we can say is a win on the West Coast.
The Tesla story isn't fully written yet.
But again, it's this difference between a culture that's, well, this product is so amazing, it will redefine economics for category, and investors saying, well, when you look at this in a spreadsheet, it just doesn't work.
And I think one interesting thing in general in the search for alpha is, where do you get intuitions that are hard to make because there's no natural person to think of it?
There's a public company called Xero, X-E-R-O, which is a small business accounting company.
And it's headquartered in New Zealand, listed on the ASX.
Its biggest market is accounting software in the UK.
But the people that fundamentally understand accounting software would be people that have followed into it
which is a West Coast stock.
NASDAQ listed would be more the people maybe look into it.
They'd look at H&R Block.
They'd maybe even go into Tableau in business analytics.
And so there you had a company that quietly went from 50 million market cap to 10 billion market cap.
And I'm not sure anyone intuited it because New Zealand investors weren't used to tech.
The Australian investors came out of a sort of mining culture and the US investors tended not to look at ASX listed companies.
And so one thing that's taught me is trying to be smarter than other people is very hard and doesn't work very often.
Trying to have an insight that you get because you sit in a different information pro just seems exponentially easier.
Let me just go a little bit further on the thoughts around that, which is, I think one of the things that's very interesting is the way you model companies in Excel with the DCF.
There's a sort of set of cultural norms, like trending down the growth rate to a terminal value over time, that obviously were correct for industrial era companies, the sort of companies that a KKR would buy.