Charlie Songhurst
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And if everyone does that, you just have a bigger sort of liquidity in every type of output.
And that leads to just a massively higher output function.
What are these changes in sort of demographics and the way we live now?
It does seem that there's likely to be some sort of city to suburban transition.
And one of the things that I like to do is sort of, I think history is really useful for investing because...
Hint, one of the mistakes you can make as a sort of temporal arrogance of thinking the time one lives through is sort of overly unique.
There's a book by Will Delonte called Caesar and Christ, and it's the sort of whole history of Rome from the founding to 500 AD and sort of the fall of Roman Christianity afterwards.
It's always interesting to think, how would you invest through that?
Do you buy or sell Roman real estate when Caesar's murdered?
Because you get a civil war, you get chaos, but then you get Augustus and peace afterwards.
Then when you get this whole spate of bad emperors, and it looks like everything's going to fall apart, maybe you would sell.
And then you get the Spasian, Trajan, Hadrian good emperors, and you get a great hundred years.
It really makes you think about sort of volatility and about...
having to make information with only the information available at that time.
And what's so interesting is you do get this sort of pattern of going from power and sort of fashion being to have your base in the city of Rome to being out in Capola or out in the smaller provinces or out on rural estates.
And that cycle seems to go exist for like the 500 years of history.
And if you look at London, I think the peak population was in the 1930s.
I think it's still higher than the present population, or it may just have peaked.
So maybe there's the beginning of one of these great 40-year demographic changes where people move back to the suburbs or not.
This is speculation.