Chris Giancarlo

So first of all, I'm a big believer in prediction markets.

I think prediction markets along with stable coins are one of the first big use cases of what I call the internet of value, this new digital architecture of finance.

I think prediction markets, who here actually agrees with me?

Prediction markets are a fundamental social improvement.

So let me tell you why I think that's the case.

And I'm going to ask another question.

How many people here checked the weather report before they came out today?

or at least half.

I tell you, a lot of times I do this, it's always two thirds of people.

You check the weather report to give you some degree of certainty, right?

And you know, it may be 10% wrong, but 90% odds that it's gonna rain are a good enough reason to bring an umbrella.

But think about all the other things in your life where you have no certainty.

Will an air traffic controller strike go another week, in which case maybe you cancel that trip to Chicago?

Will interest rates go up or down?

Maybe you're going to buy that condo in Florida or not, depending on interest rates.

Will a presidential or congressional election turn out one way, in which case I'm going to buy energy stocks or sell energy stocks?

These things have real impact on our life, and polls just don't do it.

polls contain a lot of bias the average polling samples twelve hundred people

But with prediction markets, where you're incentivizing people not to give you their bias, but to give you their informed opinion on something, you can get samples of 10,000, 100,000, a million people.

And in 2024, where more people went to the polls than ever before in human history all over the world, the prediction markets at PolyMarket and Kelshi were right in every one to a fraction of a percentage point.