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Chris Miller

👤 Speaker
125 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

Thank you for having me.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

If you start by looking at the goal that the U.S.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

government has been trying to accomplish since it began imposing controls on AI chips in 2022, the theory was that if you want to build big AI systems, you need lots and lots of high-end chips.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

And almost all of these chips are manufactured at TSMC in Taiwan and largely designed by U.S.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

companies, including Intel.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

NVIDIA.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

So the US and Taiwan have this unique choke point over AI processors.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

And the US wanted to give US firms and firms from allied countries a leg up in the AI race by giving them privileged access to AI computational capabilities.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

And that was the origin of this control regime.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

And Trump has now decided for the first time since the controls were put in place to actually reduce some of the controls and allow more chips at the high end of the spectrum to flow to China.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

You know, I think you're right.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

This is a big reversal, of course, relative to the policy of the first Trump administration, which was very tight on technology control.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

I think there are two rationales that you hear from the administration on why this changed now.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

The first is financial in focus.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

NVIDIA, obviously a critically important company for the U.S., a driver of the stock market.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

And so there's a

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

straightforward rationale to let NVIDIA sell more chips to China.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

So that's part one.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

There's a second argument that suggests if you sell chips to China, China won't want to build out its own AI chip ecosystem.

The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
China Decode: Why China’s Baby Bust Meets a Condom Tax

And we've seen Chinese firms like Huawei, most importantly, become important designers and manufacturers of AI chips.

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