Chuck Todd

when you look at this political environment, we've seen the special elections.

I do think any district that Donald Trump carried with 59% or less is theoretically in play as long as his approval ratings are sitting at 44 and below.

And that's the situation we're staring at, which is why you see Democrats doing that.

I think the thing to watch for

on the Republican side is when do they get to, when do they get to the point that Democrats got to in 2022, right?

There was a point where Democrats knew they were gonna lose the House.

So then it became a mitigation, right?

You were just mitigating your losses.

And they started messing around in Republican primaries and they got some really bad – helped get some really bad Republican nominees into general elections, which allowed them to win in some places that they probably wouldn't have won had literally there just been a generic Republican on the ticket.

I think you're going to see – because the only thing standing in the way of Democrats having a big night versus a small night is if they have –

if they have flawed nominees and if if they somehow the nominees are so flawed that Republicans can make those flaws part of the general election conversation.

Right.

The more this is a referendum on Trump,

And the more generic the messaging is on a national front, advantage Democrats.

If Republicans can somehow, and it may only be a race by race situation, but you want to put yourself and what Democrats did in 22 by mitigating, by getting involved in Republican primaries, they were able to limit their losses and make both 24 and 26 viable opportunities.

um campaigns to try to win control of congress that's the situation republicans find they just they can't afford to let this slip away they can't afford democrats picking up 25 to 40 seats

Because that gives them padding going into 28, and it probably cements a house majority at least for two cycles.

I know we've been very tumultuous over the century.

In fact, if the House changes hands again, this will be the fifth time the House has changed hands this century.

The House only changed hands twice in the last 50 years of the 20th century.