Chuck Todd

And I'm going to get to that a little bit later in this broadcast that it's still led to huge churn, which, of course, gave Republicans the momentum.

to end up picking flipping the house for the first time in 40 odd years come 1994 so and when you look there i've put some great charts uh in the sub stack you should take a look at it um of just everything is pointing towards a democratic flip the only thing preventing this at this point is something changes the entire political environment right a massive and you know when you look at the two exceptions

Of when the party in the White House in the last sort of 50 years that the party in the White House actually did well in a midterm, you had two outside events that totally scrambled the sort of the normal pattern of American politics.

Ninety eight.

And the Monica Lewinsky scandal and impeachment attempt, which boomeranged on Republicans and ended up helping Democrats.

And then 2002, the first election that we held post 9-11, which where George W. Bush was still sitting over 60 percent.

Essentially, both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in those two midterms had approval ratings in the 60s.

So then you have to ask yourself, what would it take for Donald Trump's approval rating?

Forget the 60s.

What would it take for him to get to 50?

or 51.

Well, the only thing you can think of is some sort of crisis where there's a rally around the flag effect.

And he certainly makes it a little bit harder, I think, for independents to rally around him.

But it would have to be something outside an extraordinary event.

Point is, all the data here is showing the only thing we don't know is that a small Democratic majority is going to be a big one.

And what's interesting there is

Democrats are starting to feel cocky.

The DCCC just on Tuesday morning added five new seats to their target list, and they were all seats that Trump won by double digits.

And these new seats they added, including Ryan Zinke's seat in Montana, which I think is an interesting one, a more rural, the old old Tim Wall seat that went Republican in Minnesota's first district, the open Charleston seat, the Nancy May seat in in South Carolina one, which is.

was held by a Democrat a couple of times this century, Joe Cunningham, a retired member of Congress there.