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Cliff Sosin

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
646 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And then, you know, if we were to ask him a question about, you know, once upon a time, I sort of said, why don't you adjust your pricing to kind of like compete more aggressively with Vroom? And he basically sort of described how

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And then, you know, if we were to ask him a question about, you know, once upon a time, I sort of said, why don't you adjust your pricing to kind of like compete more aggressively with Vroom? And he basically sort of described how

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

if he made competing with Vroom something that mattered, then suddenly, instead of focusing on the customer, everyone in the organization would be sort of, when Vroom wins, we lose. When Vroom loses, we win. We're not focusing on the customer anymore. And he was thinking about the second and third order social effects on his culture. And he's very deliberate about things like that. All right.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

if he made competing with Vroom something that mattered, then suddenly, instead of focusing on the customer, everyone in the organization would be sort of, when Vroom wins, we lose. When Vroom loses, we win. We're not focusing on the customer anymore. And he was thinking about the second and third order social effects on his culture. And he's very deliberate about things like that. All right.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

It's worth pointing out where the company is today because through most of the company's history, it was obvious that Carvana could grow. Margins, however, were improving, but there was always debate around the economics of the business. And I said earlier that this is a more efficient system. And for a long time, that was a matter of conjecture.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

It's worth pointing out where the company is today because through most of the company's history, it was obvious that Carvana could grow. Margins, however, were improving, but there was always debate around the economics of the business. And I said earlier that this is a more efficient system. And for a long time, that was a matter of conjecture.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

I could sort of work out unit economics and how much does it cost to ship a car a mile and blah, blah, blah. But we couldn't see it on the press release. As of now... the company's margins, EBITDA margins, and they have very little stock-based comp and relatively little capex, are 10.5%-ish and rising. And they'll probably get to the 13, 14-ish percent range based on what they've said.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

I could sort of work out unit economics and how much does it cost to ship a car a mile and blah, blah, blah. But we couldn't see it on the press release. As of now... the company's margins, EBITDA margins, and they have very little stock-based comp and relatively little capex, are 10.5%-ish and rising. And they'll probably get to the 13, 14-ish percent range based on what they've said.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And there's no reason to doubt it. And the average car dealership's about four and a half. So they make of the order of two and a half, three acts, the margins of their competitors. And we track every car that they sell, and we compare it to similar cars sold by CarMax. We also compare it to other market indices. And we believe that they sell cars of the order of $500, $600 cheaper doing that.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And there's no reason to doubt it. And the average car dealership's about four and a half. So they make of the order of two and a half, three acts, the margins of their competitors. And we track every car that they sell, and we compare it to similar cars sold by CarMax. We also compare it to other market indices. And we believe that they sell cars of the order of $500, $600 cheaper doing that.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

Now, in fairness, they charge a bit more on financing, but it's still cheaper overall. And they offer, obviously, a far superior experience, far superior selection. And they're growing. There's high-frequency data that's published. And so recently, they've been sort of growing 45% to 50% year over year.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

Now, in fairness, they charge a bit more on financing, but it's still cheaper overall. And they offer, obviously, a far superior experience, far superior selection. And they're growing. There's high-frequency data that's published. And so recently, they've been sort of growing 45% to 50% year over year.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And so the idea that they're putting all of these things together, at this point, you no longer need to speculate about the... power of the model. It's also a model that gets better as it gets bigger. So as time goes on, the selection gets better. And so I should make a note here. A traditional car dealership is a monolithic unit, a certain number of cars.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And so the idea that they're putting all of these things together, at this point, you no longer need to speculate about the... power of the model. It's also a model that gets better as it gets bigger. So as time goes on, the selection gets better. And so I should make a note here. A traditional car dealership is a monolithic unit, a certain number of cars.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

Even if you think about like CarGurus, it's a certain number of dealerships in your area that collectively have some number of cars. Carvana's pooled national inventory There are more cars available on Carvana's website right now than there are for us right now sitting here in the entire state of Connecticut from all the other dealerships.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

Even if you think about like CarGurus, it's a certain number of dealerships in your area that collectively have some number of cars. Carvana's pooled national inventory There are more cars available on Carvana's website right now than there are for us right now sitting here in the entire state of Connecticut from all the other dealerships.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And that's only going to improve brand, also process efficiency. They still have a long ways to go in terms of... Fixed cost leverage is a long ways to go. So this is a business that gets better as it gets bigger, and it's already so much better than its rivals. And its rivals, of course, it's very challenging to meaningfully update the processes in a car dealership.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

And that's only going to improve brand, also process efficiency. They still have a long ways to go in terms of... Fixed cost leverage is a long ways to go. So this is a business that gets better as it gets bigger, and it's already so much better than its rivals. And its rivals, of course, it's very challenging to meaningfully update the processes in a car dealership.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

It's just not a very skilled organization. How much technology can they really bring to pair? All the rest. I thought I'd just finish that story. The company grows. The company had enormous amounts of demand in 2021. Just put a car on the site, car disappeared. And they were trying to overcome the challenges of the pandemic, to build supply, to grow tremendously into 2022.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Cliff Sosin - Investing in Carvana - [Invest Like the Best, EP.421]

It's just not a very skilled organization. How much technology can they really bring to pair? All the rest. I thought I'd just finish that story. The company grows. The company had enormous amounts of demand in 2021. Just put a car on the site, car disappeared. And they were trying to overcome the challenges of the pandemic, to build supply, to grow tremendously into 2022.