Coleman Church

If you go and you look at most companies 401k options, their options on what to invest, and then you break down each one of them,

Basically every single equity option fund you have has the same high concentration in the same five stocks.

So, you know, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, whatever.

So you don't know that necessarily.

You don't really know what you're buying or what percentage of the fund is in those.

But it's very highly weighted because the higher the market cap go, the higher weighting, the higher the weighting goes and on and on and on.

So it's just an automatic machine-like process

underlying bid to the market that continues to the big the big get bigger and bigger and bigger and you can say okay what's wrong with that these are great companies they're multinational they have great business models that were low capital intensive and high margin and they're basically a lot of them are monopolies in their space okay well two things can happen if unemployment rises

If you lose your job, you're not putting your money in 401k.

If you lose your job and inflation keeps ripping, you might have to withdraw from your 401k.

It creates a vicious cycle the other way.

concentration and too much concentration and the structure of it is perpetuates it and then you add on the leverage of the option trading with the momentum that keeps this trade going and going and going to where you get to five trillion dollar market caps now there'll be a whole coterie of wall street analysts that will justify why five trillion makes sense because of this that and the other thing but um

I'm not sure.

And while you're seeing it kind of right now, as we speak, as the AI trade is starting to lose a little bit of favor, there's starting to be some questioning on the AI trade.

And the market can't continue to trade up if one or two of the major components are falling out of bed.

I mean, this week it's...

It's been Oracle and last night Broadcom took the market down.

NVIDIA is starting to weigh a little bit.

So we're very tech sector heavy.

And the other thing that concerns me to an extent about not just for public markets but for private credit markets is that with this AI build-out and this data center build-out,