Courtney Brown / Kate Davidson (reporting lines chiefly Courtney Brown)
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Podcast Appearances
Well, I mean, I probably I thought about this question, Kai, and I probably would would also say jobs for Jay Powell.
But since Courtney said jobs, let me talk about inflation for a minute.
CPI, I mean, I think clearly the other side of the coin here for the Fed is what's happening with inflation.
increasingly a bigger contingent of Fed officials who are worried about price pressures.
Hey, it's not just the Fed, right?
I mean, we saw this in all the conversation about the results of some big elections last week and this affordability conversation about how are voters feeling.
They're still feeling like the prices are still high.
They have been for a few years and price pressures are prevalent.
So the thing here is, though, the CPI data that we
we would have been collected in October, the government was shut down.
So the folks who would be the government workers who typically are out collecting that, they haven't been doing it.
And Trump administration officials have indicated we might not even have a CPI report to look at.
So I think that for policymakers who are worried about
defending against inflation, even absent any new data, they're just going to say, look, let's not cut rates until we know more.
So I think Jay Powell wants to have a good and updated look at that, but they might not get that for quite some time.
There's a question about whether there's going to be this just huge hole in our understanding of what happened with the economy in October.
Kevin Hassett, one of Trump's top economists, seemed to suggest that maybe we get half the jobs report, maybe we get the payroll number, but we don't get the data that actually the private sector data is not great at accounting for, which is the unemployment rate that's based on the household survey, as Kate
said and suggested with respect to cpi it's kind of similar with the jobs report this is hard to kind of backtrack and fill in the gap and it's it's almost impossible for the bls to do that so maybe with the jobs report we only get half and that's not that's not very satisfying if you want a complete picture of how the labor market has been performing in recent months
I mean, I think it matters because it's the big challenge for Jay Powell as the chair.