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Dan Ivascyn

πŸ‘€ Speaker
717 total appearances
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Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

And unfortunately, I was going to get to that.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

So again, from the standpoint of where the inflation rate may go, it's probably positive.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

It could even be positive for our debt picture.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

We didn't spend much time talking about it.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

We talked about all the corporate investment, but we're still spending way too much money

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

You know, at the government level.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

I don't see that changing this year.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

We'll find more.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

We'll come back.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

We'll cover that.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

But we do think, you know, unfortunately, we do think it's going to lead to some displacement of workers that particularly the middle income professional cohort group could see more uncertainty than they've experienced in quite some time.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

White collar unemployment.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

I agree, and that could lead to higher precautionary savings, a little bit less consumption, which can have a moderating impact on inflation and be good for the markets as a whole, both stocks and bonds.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

But it can also lead to more political uncertainty, the risk of regulatory backlash, and

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

a lot of tension.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

So we do think that it's hard to accomplish all of this in a neat and clean way where you can retrain folks fast enough to not create some frictions, some unpredictability, and perhaps even a pretty big reaction against what is perceived to be a technology in companies that are creating this disruption.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

So it's likely to be bumpy.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

So high-level macro and financial market impact

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

we're fairly constructive while realizing that we got a lot of uncertainty.

The Compound and Friends
How Pimco is Preparing for the Next Capital Loss Cycle with Dan Ivascyn

And again, when I take my investment hat off and look at the potential disruption that, yeah, on a textbook basis, ultimately, it's probably fine.