Dan Pfeiffer

You have a static number of Republican voters.

To make more Republican districts, you must move them out of safe Republican districts and put them into Democratic districts.

Then you must take those Democratic voters and move them from Democratic districts and put them into Republican districts.

And if you do that poorly, then you put a bunch of seats at risk.

I don't know if this will be a dummy-mander, but the way DeSantis did this is he...

did not shore up the two most vulnerable Republicans in southern Florida.

And the four new safe seats are probably not even going to be ranked as safe by the Cook Political Report.

They're probably lean Republican at best, or maybe likely Republican.

But they're going to end up being about seats that Trump won plus nine in 2024.

And that's within the realm of what is possible for Democrats.

The other thing here that I think is just worth noting is the

We're using the 2024 results in Florida as the baseline for how safe these seats are.

Trump won Florida by like 13 points.

But that was because, which is a huge margin, a gigantic margin of what was like the prototypical swing state for many, many races, is Trump won because he won Latinos by 13 points in 2024.

To give you a sense of how nuts that is, he lost them by five in 2020, and he lost them by 27 in 2016.

So there's a 40-point swing over the last eight years of...

among Latinos in Florida.

And there's a mountain of evidence, both in polling and in election results in Florida and elsewhere, that 2024 was an outlier in terms of Latino support.

So if you really do, and the Latino vote in Florida is incredibly complicated because it's very diverse.

So it's not, you can't just look at numbers in other parts of the country and transpose them to Florida.