Dan Wang

And even if the engineering state does very well in the short run for James C. Scott reasons, and even if in the longer run it does not do so well, in part because people want to leave, in part because of demographic problems, you know, the future is made up of a series of short runs.

If China is really able to do super well in the next five years, 15 years, it might be enough to subdue America in pretty substantial ways later on.

Yeah, I would bet not.

Because first, I agree with you that the Chinese system is really under the sway of a single leader.

And that is almost by design.

I mean, the authority in China is meant to vest in the Politburo Standing Committee, which is made up of seven to nine people.

But it is also possible, as we've seen in the case of Xi Jinping, really to dominate the entire system.

And what Xi says more or less goes.

The part that I would hesitate to fully imagine when Xi Jinping goes away that the system will be different is that even if we have a Deng Xiaoping-like figure, China might still have a lot of dysfunctions.

Because I would say that Deng Xiaoping introduced a lot of the dysfunctions that carry over to Xi Jinping.

So I think Deng Xiaoping did, let's say, broadly speaking, Deng Xiaoping ought to be best known for being the architect of reform and opening, which liberalized the economy.

And that is a tremendous good.

That is perhaps the most tremendous economic good ever in the history of humanity because about 1.4 billion people were lifted out of poverty and a few hundred million of those are living very comfortable lives and a few million of those who were living lives

on par with some of the best in the United States.

And that is an extraordinary achievement.

On the other hand, Deng Xiaoping was also very autocratic himself.

And he was, in the words of one historian who was quite senior in the party,

He was half a Mao.

He was someone who was really, really ruthless towards his political enemies.

He was never quite able to figure out succession planning.