Dana Taylor

That well-timed bet was made in the hours before the US captured and extracted Maduro, netting the anonymous investor $400,000.

Hello and welcome to USA Today's The Excerpt.

I'm Dana Taylor.

Today is Wednesday, February 11th, 2026.

Are prediction markets democratizing information?

As some argue, are we monetizing reality in a way that incentivizes perverse motives?

Here to help me dig into how prediction markets work and the risks they pose both financially and politically is Alex Goldenberg, fellow at Rutgers University.

Alex, thank you for joining me.

My pleasure.

I want to start with a bet that really made the world take notice of political prediction markets, and it's the one that was made on the ouster of Maduro.

What are prediction markets and what happened with this Maduro bet?

As you said, this wasn't the only national security bet that's caused some concern in political circles.

There were some big bets made in November by a group of traders over a battle in eastern Ukraine.

What was the bet and why has this alarmed the foreign affairs community?

Taking this one step further, betting on war could incentivize

state actors to impact outcomes.

Russia and China are clearly paying attention.

What are your biggest concerns here?

Alex, there are some who argue that insider information is exactly what makes these markets function more efficiently, that prediction markets are all about commodifying people with exceptional access to information.

What do these proponents argue?