Daniel Kahneman

And at the other end, you try to delay intuition.

But ultimately, if you're making it by judgment, you're going to have a judgment and it's going to be like an intuition and you're going to go with it.

So the more or less deliberate judgment, intuition is always involved at one point or another.

Yeah.

And our recommendation is fend it off.

Well, I mean, you may require people to explain their judgments and evaluating the quality of the explanation is, you know, whether it's logical, whether it uses the evidence, whether it uses all the evidence, whether it is strongly influenced by wishes.

whether the conclusion was reached before the judgment supposedly is made.

There are lots of ways for judgment to fail that can be recognized.

So it's harder to recognize very good judgment, but it's still easy to see what goes wrong.

And there are quite a few ways for judgment to go wrong.

Yeah.

Certainly not much better, no.

What hope do the rest of us have?

Not much.

I mean, I never, you know, I think, you know, the quality of people's judgment is affected by education, but

So in general, more educated people make better judgments, I think, on average.

But people decide, I'm going to make better judgments.

I don't think that's very hopeful.

I'm much more hopeful about organizations because organizations think more slowly and they have procedures for thinking.

And so you can control the procedures.