Daniel Kahneman

That's non-regressive prediction.

And that's very hard to resist.

Sometimes I'm able to resist it, but never when it's important.

You know, when I'm really involved in something,

I don't think about it, but sometimes I will recommend, oh, you know, that's a situation.

I should moderate my prediction.

Yeah, you can talk yourself into it.

Although, you know, you usually will find a way to cheat and end up with your intuition.

It's remarkable, you know, when you've been in academic life a long time, so you've been in many situations where people discuss a job candidate.

And absurdities of that kind are very common.

So somebody, a job candidate gives a talk

And people evaluate the talk.

And something happened, you know, at Berkeley when I was teaching there, that somebody in the talk wasn't a very good talk, stammered a bit.

Now, that person had teaching prizes, and yet what was said about him in the discussion, he can't teach.

You know, we heard the talk.

So that's a mistake.

But the funny thing is, you can point out to people that that's a mistake.

They still don't want to hire him because he gave a lousy talk.

So it's hard to resist.

I think it's pretty clear that people prefer leaders who are intuitive and who are overconfident.