Daniel Yergin

And we don't really know whether he has what interlocutors there are on the other side in Iran who have the credibility to

make a deal.

But the president has carved out that this is about the nuclear program.

And so I think it's hard for him, would be hard to then say all over, and we haven't resolved that in some way or gotten some kind of deal.

Do you think that a deal would ever occur?

A deal, it takes two to tango and it would depend upon whether either Iran's, the notion that the blockade has put such pressure on the Iranian economy that it starts to disintegrate and they really do have to do something.

That could be one thing that leads to a deal and I think the notion has been articulated for the blockade is

If Iran is trying to wage war in the global economy, this is a way to wage war in the Iranian economy without using military weapons.

Will we see?

There's been some instances that maybe there will be a restart of the military campaign to move things along, but then there's the risk of how Iran would respond.

This is really a real quandary of how to bring this to a conclusion.

Well, I think they are responding to narratives, to what is said, to a notion that rationality will prevail and this will come to an end sooner or later.

I think the industry is looking at the logistical disruption, at the constraints of where the shortages are, and is looking down the road at the supply situation.

I would say that right now, and in our own work, when we

At S&P, we see, if this prevails, we see a situation for a global supply position that's much more difficult a month from now than it is today.

The decisions that were made to put the embargo on

half a century ago were made by a small number of people and then one person really got on planes and got it solved and that was Henry Kissinger.

But I think at that point probably the people doing the embargo actually wanted to get out of it because it was a precarious position for them as well to be

doing it.

But I think, I can't think of any situation since then where, I mean you've actually