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Darren Farber

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
380 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

In the venture side is that if you were to draw it as a tree diagram, it's like we were talking about a large institutional LP that we both know. And I thought, I bet they have more GP relationships in defense venture than they actually have defense venture investments because they're all flowing back into the same deals. And so I actually believe that to be true.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

In the venture side is that if you were to draw it as a tree diagram, it's like we were talking about a large institutional LP that we both know. And I thought, I bet they have more GP relationships in defense venture than they actually have defense venture investments because they're all flowing back into the same deals. And so I actually believe that to be true.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

It seems like the capital aggregators, the ones that are getting the enormous capital, will probably be able to live out any design or economic cycle here to be able to ultimately come out the other end and be okay. And so I think resources really matters. And I think that's what you see happen in these valuations is that accumulating more resources is a form of industrial power.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

It seems like the capital aggregators, the ones that are getting the enormous capital, will probably be able to live out any design or economic cycle here to be able to ultimately come out the other end and be okay. And so I think resources really matters. And I think that's what you see happen in these valuations is that accumulating more resources is a form of industrial power.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I don't think it's surprise that after Andrew's latest raise, they announced a million square foot facility. They're building industrial capacity. That's part of aggregating lots of resources is becoming so important from an industrial standpoint that we got to keep it alive.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I don't think it's surprise that after Andrew's latest raise, they announced a million square foot facility. They're building industrial capacity. That's part of aggregating lots of resources is becoming so important from an industrial standpoint that we got to keep it alive.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And there's a lot of businesses like that that have existed for 50, 7,500 years within the country that support the department. So you can see that. Those guys win. And the ones that aren't well capitalized, irrespective of their technology, won't survive because it's not about making one new widget. It's about making millions of widgets at scale. And so I see what Andrew is doing.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And there's a lot of businesses like that that have existed for 50, 7,500 years within the country that support the department. So you can see that. Those guys win. And the ones that aren't well capitalized, irrespective of their technology, won't survive because it's not about making one new widget. It's about making millions of widgets at scale. And so I see what Andrew is doing.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I'm like, OK, I think they're thinking about this correctly. You've aggregated these resources. You must build the industrial capacity because when push comes to shove, it's going to be the ability to produce X number of whatever at scale.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I'm like, OK, I think they're thinking about this correctly. You've aggregated these resources. You must build the industrial capacity because when push comes to shove, it's going to be the ability to produce X number of whatever at scale.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I never say never, because maybe there's someone so brilliant that's figured out how to turn apple juice into rocket fuel or something like that. There's a huge technological phase shift. But if I'm betting defense venture dollars, I'm going to the largest rounds, the largest raises, the largest balance sheets, almost separate from the technology.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I never say never, because maybe there's someone so brilliant that's figured out how to turn apple juice into rocket fuel or something like that. There's a huge technological phase shift. But if I'm betting defense venture dollars, I'm going to the largest rounds, the largest raises, the largest balance sheets, almost separate from the technology.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I think the balance sheet of these businesses is so important, how big they get, because they will be able to survive and then hopefully some of them will be able to thrive. That's it. There's a ballooning effect to the big firms that can write these big checks and be there to support them.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I think the balance sheet of these businesses is so important, how big they get, because they will be able to survive and then hopefully some of them will be able to thrive. That's it. There's a ballooning effect to the big firms that can write these big checks and be there to support them.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

Some of these primes are very impressive to me. Northrop Grumman's business is remarkably impressive and the executives know their business. So I don't, the nation's only maker of missile fuel for a number of years. It's the only maker of the intermediate chemicals too, which is actually very important. I've seen some business plans that they're going to make.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

Some of these primes are very impressive to me. Northrop Grumman's business is remarkably impressive and the executives know their business. So I don't, the nation's only maker of missile fuel for a number of years. It's the only maker of the intermediate chemicals too, which is actually very important. I've seen some business plans that they're going to make.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I'm like, yeah, but where are you getting the derivative chemical? India here. So it's like the concept falls down. the whole concept of Fortress America is that you're self-contained. And so the counterparty sitting across from me in these negotiations knew 100% of what my margin was, knew exactly the technology. These were brutal negotiations of them managing costs.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I'm like, yeah, but where are you getting the derivative chemical? India here. So it's like the concept falls down. the whole concept of Fortress America is that you're self-contained. And so the counterparty sitting across from me in these negotiations knew 100% of what my margin was, knew exactly the technology. These were brutal negotiations of them managing costs.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

Because they're managed almost in a public markets way quarter to quarter, and their incentive structure right now is to make sure that they are passing along costs to that they bump into in the development of a program. They really can't take this multi-quarter bet without the government showing up.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

Because they're managed almost in a public markets way quarter to quarter, and their incentive structure right now is to make sure that they are passing along costs to that they bump into in the development of a program. They really can't take this multi-quarter bet without the government showing up.