Menu
Sign In Search Podcasts Charts People & Topics Add Podcast API Blog Pricing

Darren Farber

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
380 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And I'm not as convinced that I need to just get rid of every enterprise class carrier, every submarine, every frigate. There are true failures like the littoral combat ship, and we should turn it off, and they're doing it. These enterprise carriers are $11 billion, and they take forever to build. And so we're going to need a better paradigm there. So...

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And I'm not as convinced that I need to just get rid of every enterprise class carrier, every submarine, every frigate. There are true failures like the littoral combat ship, and we should turn it off, and they're doing it. These enterprise carriers are $11 billion, and they take forever to build. And so we're going to need a better paradigm there. So...

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

To be responsive to your question, one is process of how we get the stuff out. That needs to be improved. And then the other thing is curating the portfolio. It's both. But I wouldn't say exclusively. It may sound like I'm dodging the question to a certain extent, but do we still need enterprise carriers? I would suggest we do. What the Israelis did with five F-35s was pretty much knock out 100%.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

To be responsive to your question, one is process of how we get the stuff out. That needs to be improved. And then the other thing is curating the portfolio. It's both. But I wouldn't say exclusively. It may sound like I'm dodging the question to a certain extent, but do we still need enterprise carriers? I would suggest we do. What the Israelis did with five F-35s was pretty much knock out 100%.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

of Iran's aerial defense. That was five pilots. That's a pretty mission-capable plane. And I know that the autonomous logistics and the cost of the aircraft hasn't been great, but also the way detractors have marketed that, it's not totally fair. It's a joint strike fighter by definition. So what does it mean joint is that if you're the Navy and I'm the Air Force, we're

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

of Iran's aerial defense. That was five pilots. That's a pretty mission-capable plane. And I know that the autonomous logistics and the cost of the aircraft hasn't been great, but also the way detractors have marketed that, it's not totally fair. It's a joint strike fighter by definition. So what does it mean joint is that if you're the Navy and I'm the Air Force, we're

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

We all have one strike fighter now. It's joints, this F-35. And so it's taking away many other programs. That's why the program volume is so high. But we have it to sub 110 million a copy. And when a Gulfstream 800 is 85 million a copy, you say to yourself, OK, this is getting reasonable. There's some convergence here, but.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

We all have one strike fighter now. It's joints, this F-35. And so it's taking away many other programs. That's why the program volume is so high. But we have it to sub 110 million a copy. And when a Gulfstream 800 is 85 million a copy, you say to yourself, OK, this is getting reasonable. There's some convergence here, but.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

The cost of logistics and these things need to get better over time, but these are actually very well-run businesses. And if we work to change the incentives for these companies, which I think is very important, then you'll see fundamentally a change. The CEO of Lockheed Martin is a world-class capital allocator.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

The cost of logistics and these things need to get better over time, but these are actually very well-run businesses. And if we work to change the incentives for these companies, which I think is very important, then you'll see fundamentally a change. The CEO of Lockheed Martin is a world-class capital allocator.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I don't know if we've ever talked about it before, but Jim was the CEO of American Tower. It had like $2 billion market cap. When he left, it was $100 billion. So 10 years, 50X. This is not someone who doesn't understand capital allocation or return. But when the incentive structure is to let the department figure out what they want and then give you a very complicated requirements document.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

I don't know if we've ever talked about it before, but Jim was the CEO of American Tower. It had like $2 billion market cap. When he left, it was $100 billion. So 10 years, 50X. This is not someone who doesn't understand capital allocation or return. But when the incentive structure is to let the department figure out what they want and then give you a very complicated requirements document.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And then in the requirements document, they're asking you to push the limits of engineering, right? then what's the most appropriate way to compensate someone that's pushing the envelope of physics or technology? Historically, you had businesses that would leave the ecosystem because they're like, this is too tough. I don't want to take the risk on balance sheet.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And then in the requirements document, they're asking you to push the limits of engineering, right? then what's the most appropriate way to compensate someone that's pushing the envelope of physics or technology? Historically, you had businesses that would leave the ecosystem because they're like, this is too tough. I don't want to take the risk on balance sheet.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And so that's how we came up with Cost Plus. We said, look, you're going to take this kind of risk and I'm going to find a way to make it good enough business for you that you don't want to abandon the effort. Cost Plus. And cost plus by contract volume is only 15% of the department. It's about 30% of the budget now because we have programs moving into something called LRIP.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And so that's how we came up with Cost Plus. We said, look, you're going to take this kind of risk and I'm going to find a way to make it good enough business for you that you don't want to abandon the effort. Cost Plus. And cost plus by contract volume is only 15% of the department. It's about 30% of the budget now because we have programs moving into something called LRIP.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

That's when a program like grows up and pushes out. And then as it crosses into this mainstream production line, we go to firm fix. Sometimes the artifact stays too long because we're constantly pushing the envelope of the technology. And so you leave... cost plus in to make it meritorious for a business. But I think a lot of people think the budget's 100% cost plus. This is not true.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

That's when a program like grows up and pushes out. And then as it crosses into this mainstream production line, we go to firm fix. Sometimes the artifact stays too long because we're constantly pushing the envelope of the technology. And so you leave... cost plus in to make it meritorious for a business. But I think a lot of people think the budget's 100% cost plus. This is not true.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And the super majority of contract volume is lowest price technically acceptable. And so I work for a lot of people who drilled it into my brain of every contract that I would sign would be LPTA, lowest price technically acceptable. So In a budget so big, when the buffet is so big, it's very easy to point to these sides and say how inefficient it is. And there's a ton of inefficiency.

Invest Like the Best with Patrick O'Shaughnessy
Darren Farber - The Business of Defense - [Invest Like the Best, EP.417]

And the super majority of contract volume is lowest price technically acceptable. And so I work for a lot of people who drilled it into my brain of every contract that I would sign would be LPTA, lowest price technically acceptable. So In a budget so big, when the buffet is so big, it's very easy to point to these sides and say how inefficient it is. And there's a ton of inefficiency.