David A. Kirsch

So there's because in

technological innovations are by nature new.

Nobody knows what's going to happen.

So in that sense, that uncertainty piece is more likely to ride in on the back of technology.

OK, tulips, who knew what color tulip would spring from the bulb?

But that's a different type of uncertainty than uncertainty associated with technological change.

It's been very important as almost like a timekeeper for the bubbles.

If you think about, you know, it took decades to build out the railways or took decades to build out the electrical distribution infrastructure for electricity.

I think in a way what we're seeing now is a very accelerated build out of the infrastructure, but I think we shouldn't anticipate that we're going to get the answers, the sort of how valuable is AI until we have more time to see the AI be incorporated into our organizations and into markets and into businesses.

In that sense, you know, infrastructure is kind of that limiter that says we have the idea.

Now, how does it diffuse?

It diffuses through infrastructure and infrastructure takes time.

You know, we did it in the book, you know, zero to eight.

Zero, no bubble, no speculation, no pure plays, no stories.

And then eight is, you know, sort of off the chart.

The bubble lights are flashing, you know, warning, warning.

If I go through it, you know, the uncertainty for sure is there.

lots of novice investors, everybody wants in.

The narratives, again, there isn't a better technology than this AI overlord to kind of generate scary dreams.

I think where it might come up a little short is on the pure plays, because there really haven't been that many IPOs.