David Blanchett
speaker
252 appearances
2 recordings
1 series
first heard Oct 2025
last heard 18 Jul
David Blanchett’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 2 in all, peaking in Jul 2026 with 1.
Appearances
So with that research, it's that a lot of the models that we use to quantify retirement outcomes really aren't very good.
The most common outcomes metric we see in financial plans is the probability of success.
And what that is, it's a metric where we do this thing called a Monte Carlo projection.
We run like a thousand fake retirement.
We vary market returns and we see what happens.
And there's only one of two outcomes using that metric.
There's either you accomplish your goal in its entirety, you get a one,
If you fall a dollar short, you get a zero.
And so then you average the percentage of trials or runs or fake retirements where you fully accomplish your goal.
And where that's problematic is, is like, I wouldn't define like falling a dollar short of your goal and the 30th year of retirement is a failure.
I think that you didn't accomplish all of your goal, but using what's called a binary outcomes metric, there's just ones and zeros, it doesn't provide the right context on how you're actually doing.
So if you think about how we quantify outcomes, if we think about the fact that certain expenses we have in retirement are really important for us to pay, like...
health care like our mortgage like buying food but others maybe like where we go on vacation what we do with our time if i have to cut back those it's not that big of a deal when we kind of wrap this all together what it suggests is that people can probably spend closer to like five five and a half percent out of the game retirement versus four percent which you often see in i think more simplistic retirement income forecasts
Yeah, I think that like a really good rule of thumb in retirement is to have all of your essential expenses covered with lifetime income, right?
What that does is it kind of, I think there is the more traditional kind of like economic benefits of allocating a lifetime income, but there's also just that behavioral component, right?
If you know that no matter how long you survive, you've got the basics covered, like that better enables you to spend from your portfolio.
And the key to your point is that you can take out a higher withdrawal rate, right?
If you're willing to cut back, if you have to,
then you can spend more initially.
It's kind of a trade.
Showing 61–80 of 252 · page 4 of 13
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