David Clark

We just updated them yesterday.

And if you look at just the exits that have closed, it's now at $32 billion.

So whiz is the threshold for the top 1%.

And then if you then think about OpenAI and Anthropic coming in, potentially we could be north of $100 billion by September.

It's incredible.

So we've 10x-ed over the space of kind of 24 months.

Yeah.

What a top 1% exit looks like.

Particularly something like Wiz and Cursor, you'd kind of like four, five, six years to get from nothing to, well, $30 billion and then potentially $60 billion.

Yeah.

So the other thing where my priors have kind of shifted a little bit as well is just around the speed of change and what happens to the defensibility of the leading companies.

Because we've seen in prior generations that it's not necessarily the first movers that ultimately captured the economic value of a market.

So, you know, think Google wasn't the first search engine.

Facebook wasn't the first social media site.

And one of the things we track is, you know, every year Forbes comes out with their AI 50 startups list.

And what was really interesting was, you know, from last year to this year, 40% of the companies that were on that list last year dropped off.

Wow.

So like the half-life of these companies feels kind of incredibly short.

Yes.

So, you know, I think where our kind of priors have evolved a bit is, yes, we think the outcomes are going to be much larger, but trying to predict who captures that feels like it's getting much harder.