David Friedberg
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
And so where we are is that private equity has seen a very consistent way of returning money to help improve that 60-40 portfolio.
As a result, they got a lot of money, but then that created a lot of competition.
And so that's why you see this hockey stick graph, Jason.
And when you see that kind of graph, it doesn't matter what asset class it is, the returns go to zero.
And so we've seen this in venture capital.
We've seen this in hedge funds.
And we're now going to see this in private equity.
There's no returns.
And so again, I've said in any of these alternative asset classes, there's only one thing you should always ask if you had to have one critical question.
What are your distributions?
Don't show me your IRR.
What is your DPI?
The distributions on your paid-in capital.
And if the answer is zero, then it is a very challenged asset class.
And what I will tell you in private equity is that over the last four or five years, distributions have been few and far between.
So I think what's gonna happen is that the money is gonna come out of private equity and it's gonna get concentrated into the few companies that know what they're doing, of which Silver Lake has generated over the last 15, 20 years,
tens and tens of billions of dollars of distributions.
They are just an exceptionally well-run organization.
They've done these huge buyout deals successfully before.
So we need to go through that in PE.