Denise Chisholm

And it's, you know, in some ways the odds from a go forward perspective, once you're priced like this, what are your odds of outperformance over the course of the next 12 months?

And what's your average outperformance over the next 12 months?

Is look, it's only 50-50, which is hard to say that that's a table pounding buy.

It's not.

But it is to say that the average outperformance of all these sectors is around zero in the sense that they tend to be

at the point where much is priced in and downside might be more or less limited.

The technology sectors like semiconductors and comm equipment have actually had higher odds of outperformance, which gets to a little bit of what Chair Powell was talking about, which is technology as a sector has a history of reinventing itself.

And yes, there may be, in fact, bankruptcies within the software industry,

but there might be companies that are actually coming in to create new products as well.

Well, I'm always struck by the fact that it is always different this time, right?

COVID was very different, tariffs were very different, and yet the patterns are very sticky.

I do think that there's always a knee-jerk reaction behind, you know, equity markets need to be reflective of very good times in the economy or no existential risk.

But when you study history, you know, you see over and over again that sometimes the market goes up and climbs the wall of worry despite whatever you are worried about.

ending up coming to fruition.

And I do think that what is the definition of this cycle, when I look at the math, is that the equity market has remained much more fearful on an ongoing basis than we see in most credit markets, which tend to be the smarter markets.

You know, the more you see that fear and that knee-jerk reaction, the more likely the market is to be higher, not to say over any three-month time horizon,

but it is to say over any long-term time horizon.

So yes, could it be different this time?

But I think history shows you that those differences might end up being tailwinds that you don't suspect, like productivity, like higher GDP growth, like higher earnings growth, like more profitability in the overall market as well.

On the tech industry, you know, in some ways you can think of it as a cyclical industry.