Derek Thompson

I'm fascinated by what I'm going to call the end of the Moneyball era. So the first few decades of the 21st century in sports, if you were going to write some kind of history, I think you'd call it the Moneyball era, right? It's the era of analytics. And analytics proved so powerful, not just for producing wins, like Michael Lewis described in his original book, but for changing the game itself.

In baseball, famously, singles reach an all-time low, strikeouts reach an all-time high. Data's changed pitching and pitching angles and arm angles and launch angles for hitters. The three true outcomes are through the roof. And then in basketball, also famously, it's led to the rise of threes.

In baseball, famously, singles reach an all-time low, strikeouts reach an all-time high. Data's changed pitching and pitching angles and arm angles and launch angles for hitters. The three true outcomes are through the roof. And then in basketball, also famously, it's led to the rise of threes.

In baseball, famously, singles reach an all-time low, strikeouts reach an all-time high. Data's changed pitching and pitching angles and arm angles and launch angles for hitters. The three true outcomes are through the roof. And then in basketball, also famously, it's led to the rise of threes.

As Maury Ball took over and everyone recognized, three is more than two, so even if your percentage is a little bit lower, it's much more efficient. In both those cases, the sport was optimized. It was solved like a math problem. And I think it's notable that, by the way, this didn't happen for football, right? Football dominates ratings for many reasons, many, many reasons.

As Maury Ball took over and everyone recognized, three is more than two, so even if your percentage is a little bit lower, it's much more efficient. In both those cases, the sport was optimized. It was solved like a math problem. And I think it's notable that, by the way, this didn't happen for football, right? Football dominates ratings for many reasons, many, many reasons.

As Maury Ball took over and everyone recognized, three is more than two, so even if your percentage is a little bit lower, it's much more efficient. In both those cases, the sport was optimized. It was solved like a math problem. And I think it's notable that, by the way, this didn't happen for football, right? Football dominates ratings for many reasons, many, many reasons.

But one of them, I think, is that football is so freaking complicated that it's constantly evolving and changing rather than being optimized toward like a single endpoint. So that's the recent past. And my observation slash prediction here is that the era that we're entering into is

But one of them, I think, is that football is so freaking complicated that it's constantly evolving and changing rather than being optimized toward like a single endpoint. So that's the recent past. And my observation slash prediction here is that the era that we're entering into is

But one of them, I think, is that football is so freaking complicated that it's constantly evolving and changing rather than being optimized toward like a single endpoint. So that's the recent past. And my observation slash prediction here is that the era that we're entering into is

is an era in which Moneyball is exhausted, data analytics teams are exhausted, there's no more advantages to eke out with just being more nerdy about math, and the sports are going to push back against the nerds. And so in baseball, we're already seeing this, right? We're seeing pitching timers and pitching clocks and bigger bases and fewer defensive shifts.

is an era in which Moneyball is exhausted, data analytics teams are exhausted, there's no more advantages to eke out with just being more nerdy about math, and the sports are going to push back against the nerds. And so in baseball, we're already seeing this, right? We're seeing pitching timers and pitching clocks and bigger bases and fewer defensive shifts.

is an era in which Moneyball is exhausted, data analytics teams are exhausted, there's no more advantages to eke out with just being more nerdy about math, and the sports are going to push back against the nerds. And so in baseball, we're already seeing this, right? We're seeing pitching timers and pitching clocks and bigger bases and fewer defensive shifts.

Essentially, we're creating human rules to push back against the mathematical machine. And now in December, and you know much more about this than I do, but Adam Silver on Fox Sports says they're now talking inside the commissioner's office about the fact that there are too many threes, too much homogeneity in offensive strategies.

Essentially, we're creating human rules to push back against the mathematical machine. And now in December, and you know much more about this than I do, but Adam Silver on Fox Sports says they're now talking inside the commissioner's office about the fact that there are too many threes, too much homogeneity in offensive strategies.

Essentially, we're creating human rules to push back against the mathematical machine. And now in December, and you know much more about this than I do, but Adam Silver on Fox Sports says they're now talking inside the commissioner's office about the fact that there are too many threes, too much homogeneity in offensive strategies.

They're asking Joe Dumars to come in, and he's already in, but to look at rolling out new rules. And what I think is really interesting about this is how it's going to change the conversation about sports. I think we spent so long optimizing for team winning that we denuded what made sports interesting. This is an observation from my friend Connor Sen. We've lost what made sports interesting.

They're asking Joe Dumars to come in, and he's already in, but to look at rolling out new rules. And what I think is really interesting about this is how it's going to change the conversation about sports. I think we spent so long optimizing for team winning that we denuded what made sports interesting. This is an observation from my friend Connor Sen. We've lost what made sports interesting.

They're asking Joe Dumars to come in, and he's already in, but to look at rolling out new rules. And what I think is really interesting about this is how it's going to change the conversation about sports. I think we spent so long optimizing for team winning that we denuded what made sports interesting. This is an observation from my friend Connor Sen. We've lost what made sports interesting.

And the last piece to this is we sort of move into an age where we're going to fight back against math. And there's going to be more sort of human-driven interventions to make sports interesting and diverse and weird again, rather than everything accumulating toward the same style. Maybe two years ago, I came on your show and talked about the Bravo sports fan, right?