Derek Thompson

The unemployment rate of that second group is 0%.

So you're looking at two groups with the exact same employment rate, 90 out of 100,

but they have entirely different unemployment rates, 10% versus 0%.

And that's a way in which you can have two populations with the same employment rate, but very different unemployment rates.

I'm sorry if that's confusing for some people who are listening, but it turns out to be this huge issue when it comes to looking at why is the unemployment rate for college graduates rising faster than the unemployment rate for non-college graduates?

It's because college graduates are still looking for work.

But ultimately, they're seeing the same decline in working opportunities as non-college graduates.

Is something like that a fair recapitulation of the Ozumex study?

I want to tie a bow on this section about artificial intelligence.

What we're basically trying to say is, if specific college graduates employed in precisely those jobs that artificial intelligence is good at, like writing memos and coding, if they are facing special difficulties in this economy, that is a very good sign that the culprit is artificial intelligence.

But in fact, what you've explained is that the pain is broader.

It's shared by non-college graduates who are dropping out of the economy entirely, and so it's more likely that what we're looking at is not artificial intelligence picking off special occupations, but rather an economy-wide disease that is hurting entry-level work across the board.

So let's turn to that explanation.

When you spoke to economists last year about your big freeze theory, and you said, what we're looking at is a decline in hiring rates across the board, what was their explanation?

Terribly named phenomenon.

Because it was not the great resignation.

It was the great job switching thingy of 2021.

The great reshuffling, I think.

The great reshuffling, I think, was a much better explanation.

Because this was the experience of people who were quitting their job at TGI Fridays, making $15 an hour.