Derek Thompson

America first. We need to care about what's inside of our borders and care much less about what's outside of our borders. Sometimes the differences between Republican and Democrat administrations don't fall cleanly into the lines of liberal versus conservative because those definitions can be mushy.

There's two really big questions on the table that I think click together in an interesting way. You asked, one, why did Trump win? And two, why do Democrats have this certain communication style that might make them less interested in coming on to an unstructured three-hour conversation with you? Let me try to tell a story that connects them. I think Trump's victory in 2024 was overdetermined.

There's two really big questions on the table that I think click together in an interesting way. You asked, one, why did Trump win? And two, why do Democrats have this certain communication style that might make them less interested in coming on to an unstructured three-hour conversation with you? Let me try to tell a story that connects them. I think Trump's victory in 2024 was overdetermined.

There's two really big questions on the table that I think click together in an interesting way. You asked, one, why did Trump win? And two, why do Democrats have this certain communication style that might make them less interested in coming on to an unstructured three-hour conversation with you? Let me try to tell a story that connects them. I think Trump's victory in 2024 was overdetermined.

There are a lot of factors here. Number one, if you look internationally, incumbents lost all over the world. They lost in the U.S., they lost in Europe, they lost in pretty much every developed country at rates that we really haven't seen in 50 years. And that's largely because the inflation crisis that came after COVID created an absolute disaster for incumbent establishment power.

There are a lot of factors here. Number one, if you look internationally, incumbents lost all over the world. They lost in the U.S., they lost in Europe, they lost in pretty much every developed country at rates that we really haven't seen in 50 years. And that's largely because the inflation crisis that came after COVID created an absolute disaster for incumbent establishment power.

There are a lot of factors here. Number one, if you look internationally, incumbents lost all over the world. They lost in the U.S., they lost in Europe, they lost in pretty much every developed country at rates that we really haven't seen in 50 years. And that's largely because the inflation crisis that came after COVID created an absolute disaster for incumbent establishment power.

People couldn't bring prices down. Voters were furious. And they were destroying establishment orders all over the world. Democrats happened to be in power. And as a result, they got the brunt of it. That's number one. Number two, if you look at elections over the 21st century, two things are true.

People couldn't bring prices down. Voters were furious. And they were destroying establishment orders all over the world. Democrats happened to be in power. And as a result, they got the brunt of it. That's number one. Number two, if you look at elections over the 21st century, two things are true.

People couldn't bring prices down. Voters were furious. And they were destroying establishment orders all over the world. Democrats happened to be in power. And as a result, they got the brunt of it. That's number one. Number two, if you look at elections over the 21st century, two things are true.

One, almost every election is unbelievably close for reasons that I'm not sure I entirely understand. The parties have gotten really good historically, bizarrely good. at getting each group to come to the polls with about 48%, such that every election is a battle over the next 1.5%. And in a world like that, little thermostatic swings are very important.

One, almost every election is unbelievably close for reasons that I'm not sure I entirely understand. The parties have gotten really good historically, bizarrely good. at getting each group to come to the polls with about 48%, such that every election is a battle over the next 1.5%. And in a world like that, little thermostatic swings are very important.

One, almost every election is unbelievably close for reasons that I'm not sure I entirely understand. The parties have gotten really good historically, bizarrely good. at getting each group to come to the polls with about 48%, such that every election is a battle over the next 1.5%. And in a world like that, little thermostatic swings are very important.

And what we've seen over the last few years, and there's this theory about thermostatic public opinion in American politics that says that What often happens in politics is one party has a very compelling message of change. They become the establishment and then they become the victims of exactly the weapon that they marshaled.

And what we've seen over the last few years, and there's this theory about thermostatic public opinion in American politics that says that What often happens in politics is one party has a very compelling message of change. They become the establishment and then they become the victims of exactly the weapon that they marshaled.

And what we've seen over the last few years, and there's this theory about thermostatic public opinion in American politics that says that What often happens in politics is one party has a very compelling message of change. They become the establishment and then they become the victims of exactly the weapon that they marshaled.

That then the next outgroup party says we have a theory of change and we're going to throw out the bums. And the next party comes in and they overreach and then they lose. In a world where you have thermostatic change and every election is very close, you tend to have elections swinging back and forth. So I think that also explains why

That then the next outgroup party says we have a theory of change and we're going to throw out the bums. And the next party comes in and they overreach and then they lose. In a world where you have thermostatic change and every election is very close, you tend to have elections swinging back and forth. So I think that also explains why

That then the next outgroup party says we have a theory of change and we're going to throw out the bums. And the next party comes in and they overreach and then they lose. In a world where you have thermostatic change and every election is very close, you tend to have elections swinging back and forth. So I think that also explains why

Democrats and Republicans have struggled to hold onto power for six-year, eight-year, 12-year terms the same way they did, say, in the 1930s or 1960s. But finally, you have to look at what kind of character Donald Trump is and what kind of a media figure he is.