Diego Parrilla

not and understanding the randomness you know I teach at Imperial College and we talk about you know stochastic processes and randomness and I think terrorist attacks or natural disasters or things are within the

realm of probabilities, of things that could happen.

And they are extreme events.

They, you know, given our own standards and probability distributions and mindset of normalization, you have these concepts where, you know, when you windsorize a distribution and just take out everything outside of the 1% just to have a nice, neat stuff.

And the concept of a five standard deviation, 10 standard deviation, 50 standard deviation looks crazy because we immediately, the causality is reversed.

You know, we built a model in our heads that says,

the probability of that happening is impossible because, you know, it would require, it would be once since the dinosaur age.

And Taleb is more saying like, are you guys out of your mind or what?

I mean, we've had an oil futures market for whatever, 30 years, and you're making extrapolations for thousands of years and pretending this has never been seen before.

So I think Black Swan is really,

more philosophical human question about, you know, how, you know, the models we build in our heads can actually lead us and mislead us into believing that we have this sense of control, this fooled by randomness, you know.

So I think in that sense, when you touch on whether there's some sort of relationship, I think the other thing that Taleb does is

What I love about the definition is the, of course, you know, it's like everybody thought it was impossible.

But now everyone's, of course, the, you know, there was a terrorist attack in the Twin Towers.

Of course, it was going to happen because of, you know, so I, there is.

is potentially a link, but I think they're two slightly distinct approaches.

You could rationalize the black swan, and that's part of the definition of how the black swan is defined.

So it's events, three conditions, events that are extremely large, that nobody sees coming, but everybody thinks it's obvious after the fact, right?

And we can talk about the pandemic and others.

So back to misconceptions, I think it's easier than that.