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Diego Parrilla

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
646 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

You don't see that.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Even during Brexit, you had sterling collapsing, but UK assets going up because of a total return gain.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

So I think in that sense, it's very important to understand that

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

You want your defenders to be volatile.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

You need them to be volatile.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

So do not confuse volatility and risk.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

But the problem, it's the unreliability of correlation.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

If you knew that your defender is going to be reliable during the crisis, then you want it to be as volatile as possible.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

The problem is that reliability, and that reliability is largely a function sometimes of positioning.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Yeah, the scorpion.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I would have a heart attack.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

If I've been Colombian and he did that, I would have a...

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I was probably 10 years old at the time, but I would have still had a heart attack.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Look, and I think that's why I make the difference between defenders and goalkeepers.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I don't think fixed income is a goalkeeper.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

I've always viewed fixed income as a defender.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

And the problem is, you know, back in the day when I think it's in the book, I talked about de Bund being, I called it Franz de Bund Beckenbauer with, again, it shows my age, but it was this legendary defender from Germany, right?

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

Who passed away now, but incredible defender.

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

So de Bund may have been an incredible defender once upon a time,

The MOST Important Thing
Why even our best Models Fail Us: The Illusion of Control Over Randomness

but in his mid 70s with negative nominal yields, it was very obvious he was not gonna be able to defend.