Domenico Montanaro

I mean, his approval rating for foreign policy in our last survey last month was 36 percent.

His approval for the Iran war, 36 percent.

His approval on the economy also in the 30s.

That's pretty bad when your approval rating for domestic and foreign policy is in the 30s.

When people say that the economy and prices are their top concern and oil prices are going up because of this war.

These are a lot of things that start to compound and pile on, not just the president, but his party in a midterm election year.

I mean, there are outcomes that could make people at least not be more negative toward the president.

But I don't know that you're going to have much change when it comes to the people who view this negatively becoming more positive toward Trump.

I mean, independence, maybe perhaps a little bit could improve if, let's say, and this is a humongous if that doesn't seem very likely that you wind up with a better regime in Iran next.

you know, in the United States doesn't stay in a prolonged way, then maybe people will look back on it and say, yeah, maybe it was a good thing.

But if that doesn't happen and you wind up with a similar regime to the one that was there in the first place, as Trump himself said, that's possible.

Right.

And that that would be a bad outcome.

Well, and in the last couple of months, the landscape for the midterm elections, the number of competitive seats has actually opened up a little bit.

You've seen more Republican seats move from things like solid to likely or likely to lean when it comes to the Cook Political Report.

And that's a warning sign for Republicans.

You're continuing to see the number of retirements go up and there's more Republicans who are retiring than Democrats.

That's another warning sign.

And then when you have, as Tam said, a president who people are saying is not focused enough on the top concern that they have, then that's a major problem for the president and the party in power.

The one thing I would note is that Trump is not on the ballot, as Tam said.